Republicans are stepping up their warnings about the midterms after a stunning Democratic upset in Texas over the weekend.
The Republican Party was already grappling with growing backlash to a pair of immigration-related shootings in Minneapolis before Democrat Taylor Rehmet’s shock win in a state Senate race in the Lone Star State on Saturday.
Multiple Republicans have framed the race as a “wake-up call” for the party, as polls show Democrats leading on the generic ballot ahead of what will be a fierce battle for both the House and Senate in November.
“This is definitely something Republicans should take seriously and get to the bottom of, and understand why this race didn’t go well in Tarrant County, and what the national implications might be,” said Texas Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser.
Rehmet, a machinist and Air Force veteran, defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by roughly 14 points to fill the vacant state Senate District 9, a dramatic swing to the left in a district that went to President Trump by 17 points in 2024.
The race had shifted into a runoff after no candidate clinched a majority in November, rattling Republicans even before Saturday.
Despite a significant fundraising edge and support from prominent party leaders, including Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) — plus a last-minute Trump endorsement — Wambsganss lost decisively, allowing the seat to fall into Democratic hands for the first time in more than 40 years.
“Tonight is a wake-up call for Republicans in Tarrant County, Texas, and the nation. The Democrats were energized. Too many Republicans stayed home,” Wambsganss said in a statement after her loss.
Texas Lt. Gov Dan Patrick (R) also said on the social platform X that the results are “a wake-up call for Republicans” across the Lone Star State.
“Our voters cannot take anything for granted,” Patrick said, pushing Republicans to “come out fighting with a new resolve” and flip the seat back in November, when the contest for a full term in the district will take place.
Rehmet’s win adds to a string of Democratic special election victories and overperformances since Trump returned to the White House — results that have boosted the party’s hopes of breaking the GOP’s slim majority in the House and potentially even the Senate.
Meanwhile, Trump faces sunken approval ratings and growing frustration over his immigration crackdown, which led to two fatal shootings at the hands of federal officers in Minnesota this month and complicated what has long been a winning issue for the GOP.
“Special elections are quirky and not necessarily projectable re: a general election. That said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed. Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said on X following the Texas election.
On a generic congressional ballot, Democrats are favored over Republicans by more than 5 points, according to Decision Desk HQ’s polling aggregate. That’s a significant change from the first month of Trump’s term, when Republicans were ahead.
Democrats need to net just three seats to flip the House. Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin said the Texas election results “prove that no Republican seat is safe.”
“Backlash to the immigration crackdown and the treatment of Latinos in particular … is definitely turning Latino voters away from the Republican Party,” said Jon Taylor, the University of Texas at San Antonio’s department chair of political science.
“Is it a bellwether for the midterms? I think that is way too early,” Taylor said. “But as a one-off, it definitely sent a message. It was a shot across the bow. And it definitely spooked Republicans.”
Just a day after his “Complete and Total” endorsement of Wambsganss, Trump appeared to distance himself from the race on Sunday, telling reporters, “I’m not involved in that. That’s a local Texas race.”
He did, however, say he’d give a “very serious look” at endorsing in the U.S. Senate race in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) faces a tough challenge from his right in state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). Meanwhile, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (Texas) and state Rep. James Talarico are vying for the Democratic nod.
In hypothetical general election match-ups, a recent Emerson poll found Paxton tied with both Talarico and Crockett — while Cornyn defeated Talarico by 3 points and Crockett by 5 points.
Democrats have struggled for decades to clinch a statewide win in red Texas, which voted for Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024. But operatives in the state have drawn comparisons to the 2018 midterms, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of ousting Sen. Ted Cruz (R) amid a national “blue wave.”
“I don’t think we can spin our way out of this one. There’s just no justification for a 31-point swing in Texas,” Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe said of the Texas special election.
“And frankly, when you look at the Senate majority and seats we shouldn’t have to defend, Texas is at the top of that list. If we are underperforming at that level, and have the kind of primary that we have there, that is not a good sign.”
Many are placing blame on low turnout in a downballot race. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) faulted this month’s winter storm in the Lone Star State. And Wambsganss projected confidence that the dynamics will be “fundamentally different” when she and Rehmet square off to win a full term in this fall’s general election.
Others argue it’s the latest warning sign for Republicans in Texas and beyond.
“It’s only a wake-up call if you had hit the snooze button on every single other indicator we’ve had in the past six months,” Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett said.
“This is not a wake-up call. This is an additional significant data point, which is pointing towards a very, very ugly midterm.”
