A disturbance in the Caribbean strengthened Monday afternoon into Tropical Storm Rafael, which is forecast to become a hurricane Tuesday.
Rafael, previously known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, formed Sunday. At 4 a.m ET Tuesday, it was about 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and moving north-west at around 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“A northwestward turn with a little more acceleration is anticipated over the next few days,” the center said in its 10 p.m. ET update on the storm.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it will be the 11th hurricane if it strengthens further, as expected. The season lasts until Nov. 30, though peak activity is usually around Sept. 10.
The storm system is expected to approach the U.S. later in the week, the hurricane center said, and a tropical storm watch was issued Monday afternoon for the lower and middle Florida Keys and for the Dry Tortugas. Parts of Florida and nearby areas of the Southeast could get heavy rain by mid- to late week, though NHC forecasters said it is still too early to make predictions about impacts for the Gulf Coast.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands, and the Cuban government has upgraded all areas previously covered by hurricane watches to hurricane warning status, which indicates hurricane conditions are likely in 36 hours, the hurricane center said.
Havana is among the areas under a hurricane warning, the center said.
Forecasters expect the weather system to move near Jamaica late Monday, then to be near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, when it may be near or at hurricane intensity. It is then forecast to approach Cuba on Wednesday.
The hurricane center’s latest forecast cone, which comes with some uncertainty, has Rafael passing over over the western reaches of Cuba on Wednesday afternoon or evening.
“Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba,” the hurricane center said in a late-night forecast discussion on Monday.
As early as Monday morning, NHC forecasters said the chance that the storm would become a hurricane over the next 48 hours was “near 100%.”
Rafael is forecast to dump 3 to 6 inches of rain across much of the western Caribbean and up to 9 inches in some areas. The heaviest precipitation is expected in Jamaica.
Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday evening, and storm surge up to 3 feet is expected in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, the NHC said. Flooding and mudslides could also occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.
This hurricane season has proven to be an active one. Parts of the Southeast are still reeling from hurricanes Helene and Milton, which hit two weeks apart in late September and early October.
Forecasters predicted an exceptionally busy hurricane season, in part because of record-high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.
Experts at Colorado State University, a prominent hurricane forecast center, said this year that they anticipated a “hyperactive season.” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted eight to 13 hurricanes and 17 to 25 named storms — the most the agency had ever projected in the annual outlook it issues in May.
Rafael is the 10th named storm since Sept. 24, making the 2024 season’s 10 named storms between Sept. 24 and Nov. 4 the most on record for that time span, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (classified as Category 3 or above), according to the NHC.
