WASHINGTON (Sputnik) – The recent decision in Maine to ban former President Donald Trump from the state ballot in the 2024 presidential election could rapidly escalate and lead to a complete disintegration of the national US political system next year, such as happened in 1860 – leading directly to the 1861-65 Civil War, experts told Sputnik.
“This whole situation might end badly for the United States [and] lead straight to a national breakdown. Like it happened in 1860,” US constitutional historian and political commentator Dan Lazare said.
Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows disqualified Trump from the state’s Republican primary ballot because of his role in the January 6 riot at the Capitol in 2021.
“They [the challengers] have provided sufficient evidence to demonstrate the falsity of Mr. Trump’s declaration that he meets the qualifications of the office of the presidency,” Bellows wrote in a document on Thursday. “Therefore, as required by [law], I find that the primary petition of Mr. Trump is invalid.”
However, Bellows added that the effect of the decision will be suspended until the Maine State Superior Court rules on any forthcoming appeal from the Trump defense bench. Maine will hold its vote for the Republican primary in March.
The appeal will be filed immediately, a Trump campaign spokesman said in a press release.
Bellows’ announcement followed the Colorado state decision earlier this month to bar Trump from participating in that state’s Republican primary and marked a serious escalation towards a national constitutional crisis and breakdown, Lazare said. “The results are negative no matter how you look at it,” he said.
If the courts uphold the Colorado and Maine decisions, other states would follow the same path and the crisis would go nationwide, Lazare said.
“Suppose the [US] Supreme Court lets the Colorado and Maine decisions stand. That means that other states will likely follow suit, knocking Trump, the leading candidate according to a multitude of polls, off the ballot in much of the country,” Lazare said.
That process could destroy Trump’s prospects of being elected in a free and fair national vote even if he won the Republican presidential nomination, Lazare said.
“Presumably, that spells defeat [for Trump] in November. But how many Americans will regard such an outcome as even remotely fair?” he said.
Republican-controlled states would not stand by passively and allow the Democrats to manipulate the national presidential election that way, Lazare said.
“Even worse is if Texas Lieutenant-Governor Dan Patrick follows through on his threat to bar Biden in retaliation. If so, Sleepy Joe [President Joe Biden] could find himself off the ballot in much of the country as well,” Lazare said.
The United States has not been rocked by such a constitutional crisis in 164 years, he noted.
“The result will be a replay of 1860 in which Lincoln was off the ballot in nine southern states, Stephen A. Douglas was off the ballot in two up north, John Breckinridge, the Southern Democratic candidate, was barred in four, and John Bell, the Constitutional Union candidate, was barred in three,” Lazare said.
The result was the almost immediate slide into a Civil War now estimated to have cost 800,000 lives out of a total population of only 30 million, he said.
“Since no candidate was capable of achieving anything resembling a national mandate, a broken-down electoral process led straight to a national breakdown as well,” Lazare said.
The US Supreme Court might well overturn the irresponsible decisions of the Colorado and Maine state governments. But that in turn would outrage Democrats across the nation, he said.
“But now consider what happens if the Supreme Court overturns the Colorado and Maine decisions, thereby putting the other 48 states on notice that such shenanigans will not be tolerated. It is not hard to guess what happens next: a hue and cry from Democrats that the court is operating at gross variance with the Fourteenth Amendment’s insurrection clause,” Lazare said.
However, the Fourteenth Amendment itself was adopted as part of the Republican-directed Reconstruction of the South in the post-Civil War era, Lazare said.
Therefore, “they [today’s Democrats] will label it a neo-Confederate power grab and a replay of Bush v. Gore in December 2000. Since Trump appointed three of the court’s six conservative justices, they’ll accuse him of fixing the outcome,” Lazare said.
Such a crisis would destroy US political stability even if Trump won legitimately, he said.
“If he [Trump} wins, the blow to legitimacy will be terrific. Political instability will deepen,” Lazare said.
The underlying cause of the entire crisis is the collapse of the United States’ ancient and unreformed political system, he said. “The bottom line is that American democracy is falling apart regardless,” Lazare said.
The faults in the current system had been apparent, exposed and had only gotten worse for decades, he said.
“America’s hyper-federal system of 50 separate state elections is so baroque and antiquated that it fairly cries out for an overhaul. Yet fundamental structural reform is something our sclerotic constitutional system will not allow. Consequently, the decay can only intensify,” Lazare said.
Historian and TNT radio commentator Bruce de Torres added that the arguments for barring Trump from the Republican primary ticket were not valid.
“It’s a travesty. If, as I believe, Trump has not been ‘convicted’ of ‘insurrection’ in any case that I know of. If this process continues, nothing good comes of it,” Torres said.
The Colorado and Maine decisions in reality revealed a terror of the outcome of any just, free and fair democratic process by the very officials and political establishment who had been elected and appointed to uphold it, he said.
“We cower in fear, proving our weakness to ourselves, and sink into deeper self-loathing and hatred of ourselves, which we’ll project onto ‘others,’ further divided and conquered in the ‘war of all against all’ that our overlords would love to induce,” Torres said.
The crisis can only serve to destroy the last vestiges of trust and confidence that the American people still have in their political system, he said.
“As many are now saying, a majority will believe ‘our institutions are rotten’ and so we’ll go along with some plan to follow – be governed by – some foreign/international power, because we will think ‘the American experiment failed so let’s try something else,'” Torres added.
George Mason University law professor Frank Buckley said there was still one bulwark of constitutional responsibility that could and probably would overturn the Colorado and Maine state announcements.
“[They will be] reversed by the Supreme Court,” Buckley said.
In August, President Tom Fitton, president of the conservative legal and election watchdog group Judicial Watch, described the indictment moves against Trump as “a naked threat and act of intimidation by the Democratic Party” against any and all of their political opponents.
