The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races to the left on Monday but noted that the GOP is still favored to maintain its majority in the upper chamber this November.
“With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor,” wrote Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the report.
“But due to the difficulty of the map, winning back a majority still remains a tall order,” she continued. “The GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber. However, that outlook could change in the coming months.”
The report moved two Senate races from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat”: the fight to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-Ga.) reelection campaign.
It also moved Sen. Jon Husted’s (R-Ohio) race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” and Sen. Pete Ricketts’s (R-Neb.) reelection attempt from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
Husted, whom Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed to replace Vice President Vance in the upper chamber, will likely face former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in November. Brown, a veteran of the Senate, lost in 2024 to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio).
Ricketts, meanwhile, is facing a challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn — who lost to GOP Sen. Deb Fischer (Neb.) in 2024.
In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley will face off to succeed Tillis. Further south in Georgia, a crowded GOP field — featuring Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Mike Collins (R-Ga.), along with former football coach Derek Dooley — are squaring off in the primary that will decide who takes on Ossoff.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the upper chamber, with Taylor writing Monday on the social platform X that the “likeliest outcome” is Democrats picking up one to three seats — less than the four they need for a majority.
“At the core of the GOP’s problems is President Donald Trump and his dipping approval ratings,” Taylor wrote in her analysis. “Nothing he has done lately has boosted his party’s prospects — including an unpopular military action in Iran that sent gas prices skyrocketing, even as he has dismissed voters’ concerns about affordability.”
“Trump has even seen his advantage on immigration erode amid disapproval of ICE’s controversial enforcement tactics.”
Taylor noted, though, that Democrats are “still contending with messy primary fights in Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa” and the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund and Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC have millions more in their coffers than the Democratic National Committee has.
“We concede that these ratings changes are coming as Trump is at a new polling low and still navigating a yet-to-be-resolved war in Iran,” she added. “So, it’s possible things could rebound for his party or that they could find a rallying cry to get his base out in November — a summer Supreme Court retirement certainly wouldn’t hurt.”
