FORT WORTH, Texas — Sen. John Cornyn is spending the homestretch of his primary warning Texas Republicans that if he loses the contest to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, GOP candidates up and down the ballot in November will pay a steep price.
“If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas,” Cornyn told supporters at the Fort Worth Police Association on Wednesday afternoon, referring to statewide elections.
“I know people assume that Texas is a red state, will always be a red state, but when you nominate a flawed individual with the sort of political baggage that Ken Paxton has, you are risking all that,” Cornyn said. “You’re risking the United States Senate seat. You’re risking President Trump’s agenda to resume two years in office, and you are risking everybody else on the ballot below the Senate race.”
The potential impact on other Republicans on the ballot is a key part of Cornyn’s closing message ahead of his March 3 primary against Paxton and GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt. With three high-profile candidates vying for the Republican Senate nomination, it’s unlikely that anyone will win a majority of the vote, meaning the primary is expected to head to a runoff May 26.
He delivered the same message to a few dozen supporters Tuesday at Serranos Cocina y Cantina in Austin, saying Paxton’s nomination would lead to “an Election Day massacre” for the GOP.
“Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price of having an albatross like our corrupt attorney general hung around their neck,” Cornyn said, alluding to Paxton controversies, including his divorce and the allegations of bribery that led to his impeachment by the state House in 2023; the state Senate ultimately acquitted him.
Paxton, meanwhile, has suggested he can energize core Trump supporters who have been less likely to turn out when Trump isn’t on the ballot.
“Ensuring that low-propensity America First voters are motivated to show up in November is critical to Republicans’ success in 2026, and John Cornyn is the single worst person in Texas to accomplish that,” Paxton said in a Feb. 9 statement.
Paxton pointed to a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll that tested hypothetical general election matchups and found both Cornyn and Paxton slightly ahead of the Democrats but within the survey’s margin of error. The poll also found Republican voters viewed Paxton more favorably than Cornyn.
Paxton adviser Nick Maddux said in a statement that Texans view Paxton as “a conservative warrior who will always fight for us and our freedoms, even in the face of the Left trying to tear him down. Texans also know that John Cornyn is just like every other career politician who talks tough during election season, but then does the exact opposite in D.C. and betrays Texas by repeatedly pushing gun control and amnesty.”
Asked about Paxton’s case that he can turn out infrequent Trump voters, Cornyn said Tuesday that Paxton was “living in a fantasy” and that he would be a “dead weight” for other Republican candidates. Cornyn said independents, Democrats and “many Republicans” wouldn’t vote for Paxton “because of his blatant record of corruption.”
“So I understand him trying to put the best spin on his argument, but it’s simply not true,” Cornyn continued.
Cornyn was talking about voters like Mike Lopez, 60, a small-business owner who cast his primary ballot for Cornyn in Austin on Tuesday. Lopez, who identifies as an independent, said that he wouldn’t support Paxton if he is the GOP nominee in November and that he’d consider backing state Rep. James Talarico if he wins the Democratic primary against U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
“He’s just a crook,” Lopez said of Paxton. “That’s it. I mean, he’s just a basic criminal that got his hands in the cookie jar and got caught. So that’s not representative of being a Republican or being conservative.”
Cornyn also noted that Trump is particularly invested in holding onto the House and winning the five House seats in Texas that Republicans in the Legislature redrew in the GOP’s favor last year. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take control of the House.
“I know they’re important to President Trump, because he talks about it all the time,” Cornyn said of the Texas congressional districts. “He does not want to lose the majority in the House of Representatives. First, because we want to continue to pass good, solid legislation and pass President Trump’s agenda. But he doesn’t want to get impeached for a third time, which is what will happen if the Democrats get control.”
That argument hasn’t persuaded Trump to jump into the race so far. Trump has stayed neutral in the primary despite months of pressure from Cornyn and Senate GOP leaders to back Cornyn, who is in his fourth term.
“I just haven’t made a decision on that race yet. It’s got a ways to go,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One this week. He went on to say Cornyn is “a good man.”
“I like all three of them, actually, I like all three. Those are the toughest races. They’ve all supported me. They’re all good, and you’re supposed to pick one. So we’ll see what happens. But I support all three,” Trump said.
A source familiar with Trump’s thinking about the race said he is unlikely to endorse a candidate in a primary runoff. The source said that Trump makes endorsement decisions based on a number of factors, including electability, his personal connection with the candidate, loyalty and a gut feeling, and that in this case, Trump’s gut feeling is off and he is inclined to stay out of the race.
It’s also not clear yet whether Cornyn’s case will be enough for a strong showing on March 3 or to win a May runoff.
It’s not the first time in recent years that Cornyn has brought up electability ahead of a big election. He was one of the prominent Republicans who also raised questions about Trump’s electability ahead of the 2024 election.
“I think President Trump’s time has passed him by,” Cornyn said in 2023. “And I think what’s the most important thing for me is that we have a candidate who can actually win.”
Asked Wednesday why he believes the case that Paxton isn’t electable will resonate with GOP primary voters who supported Trump despite electability concerns, Cornyn told NBC News after the Fort Worth event: “Well, that’s the whole point about elections, is to get elected.
“The point I’m trying to make is this really, this isn’t just about me,” he added. “This is about Republicans up and down the ticket and President Trump’s second-term agenda. I think it would not be good, and I’m sure the president would agree, to lose a state and a Senate seat that he depends on as much as Texas.”
