Vice President Harris is blitzing through the states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan this week, as polls tighten and Democratic nerves fray over the possibility they could again lose the “blue wall” to former President Trump.
Harris in the next six days will spend three days in Michigan, two days in Pennsylvania and a day in Wisconsin with multiple stops on each visit.
All three states are on a razor’s edge in the presidential race, with Harris holding a 0.7 percentage point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s aggregate polling, and Trump leading by 0.8 points in Michigan and a 0.1 points in Wisconsin.
It will be difficult for either Trump or Harris to win if they lose the three swing states, which have moved in the same direction in every presidential contest since 1992.
Harris has hopes of building a second path to 270 electoral votes that would include victories in other swing states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. But she trails Trump in the RealClearPolitics average in those states, all of which have generally been won by GOP presidential candidates over the last few decades.
The states are equally critical to Trump, who could win all three Southern states along with swing state Nevada, and then still fall just short of 270 electoral votes.
“There’s no getting around the fact that those three states in the so-called blue wall are pivotal to both campaigns,” said Al Mottur, a Democratic strategist and bundler at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck.
Harris faces real challenges in all three states.
Union voters are key in the blue wall, and Harris has seen the Teamsters and International Association of Fire Fighters opt to not endorse in this cycle after backing President Biden over Trump four years ago.
In Michigan, Harris faces the challenge of defending the Biden administration’s approach to Israel and Gaza, which has deeply angered Arab American voters, a major force in the Great Lakes State.
Harris’s tiny lead in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average in Wisconsin is also alarming to some Democrats, given Trump’s overperformance of polls in the state in 2016 and 2020. If Trump overperforms again, he’s likely to win the White House.
Mottur said he’s “most nervous about Pennsylvania and Michigan.”
“I think that both of them are essentially toss-ups, even though she’s slightly ahead,” added Mottur.
“Michigan is tough with the all the union workers, the autoworkers, the Trump emphasis on — which is not accurate, by the way — but his lies that Democrats want to take away your gas cars and force you to drive electric vehicles. That messaging can work in Michigan. And in Pennsylvania, it’s just a very tough state for Democrats.”
Pennsylvania has long been seen as the most critical battleground state to win, both because it has 19 Electoral College votes, and because of the hope that a win there would be accompanied by wins in Michigan and Wisconsin.
“They built a campaign to close in a nail-biter, and they were right,” said Ivan Zapien, a former official with Democratic National Committee.
The blue wall blitz by Harris shows she does not want to make a mistake some said Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton made in 2016 by not spending enough time campaigning in the three states.
“[Clinton’s running mate Sen.] Tim Kaine said to me after the 2016 election that one of the mistakes they made is they campaigned demographically, not geographically,” Mottur said. “They had analytics that said, ‘We need to target these demographics via our messaging, our ads.’ If you don’t travel geographically … you’re going to get shellacked. And that’s what happened to her.”
Harris is also showing a willingness to take more risks. It was announced Monday that she will sit down for an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier on Wednesday.
Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), have also been setting up camp in Pennsylvania. Trump is leaning on billionaire supporter Elon Musk, who intends to make appearances in the Keystone State in the closing weeks of the campaign.
Trump will hold a town hall in Oaks, Pa., on Monday, and he campaigned last week in Scranton and Reading, Pa.
Some Republicans have been signaling growing confidence about the race.
“So goes Pennsylvania, so goes the USA. … But I’m very hopeful at this point,” said David Urban, a Pennsylvania native who has advised Trump’s previous presidential campaigns.
One Republican strategist who is close with the Trump campaign argued Harris’s trips signal concerns about the states.
“They’re playing defense on the map, and in the limited map we have, Trump is on offense,” the strategist said, pointing to the former president’s travel to California, Colorado and New York as evidence the former president is making a play for the popular vote.
Harris on Monday evening will appear in Erie, Pa., which is in a county that is considered a bellwether for how the Keystone State votes. Biden won Erie by fewer than 1,500 votes after Trump won it in 2016 by fewer than 2,000 votes, according to NPR.
Later in the week she will travel to Detroit, then back to Pennsylvania, and then to Milwaukee, La Crosse and Green Bay, Wis. She’ll finish the week with stops in Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Oakland County in Michigan.
Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), traveled to Eau Claire and Green Bay, Wis., on Monday.
Trump allies argue that his message this cycle is resonating in the blue wall.
He is focusing on the push for electric vehicles from the Biden administration in manufacturing towns along the blue wall. And, he’s highlighting that Harris, while running in the 2020 Democratic primary, backed a fracking ban. She has since said she would not ban fracking, which is an essential industry sector in Pennsylvania.
“Democrats have spent over $200 million to try to redefine Kamala Harris — but even still, President Trump is winning or tied in poll after poll in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin because his message is resonating with voters across the country,” said Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly.
Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is viewing her schedule this week and until Election Day as way to acknowledge that the race will be neck and neck until the end.
“The margins in this election will be razor-thin, and we are dedicated to leaving it all out on the field,” said Dan Kanninen, campaign battleground director. “This campaign will be relentless in making sure voters know Vice President Harris’ agenda for a New Way Forward and how that stands in stark contrast with the Trump Project 2025 plans to take us backwards.”
