Domestic violent extremists will pose “the most significant physical threat to government officials, voters, and elections-related personnel and infrastructure, including polling places, ballot drop box locations, voter registration sites, campaign events, political party offices, and vote counting sites,” according to a Department of Homeland Security assessment released on Wednesday.
DHS believes that extremists will be motivated by policy grievances, which have also led to an uptick in the targeting of election officials.
The overall threat environment in the United States “will remain high,” according to the department’s annual threat assessment.
“The Homeland faces a complex set of threats to our public safety, border security, critical infrastructure, and economy from violent extremists, transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), adversarial nation-states, and malicious cyber actors,” the 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment says.
“The Homeland Security Assessment provides an important overview of the dynamic and evolving threat landscape, illustrating just how varied and challenging the threats we confront are,” said Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas. “It is because of the remarkable DHS workforce, and our close collaboration with our federal, state, local, tribal, territorial, and private sector partners, that we are able to meet the challenges and keep the American people safe and secure.”
The assessment, produced by the Office of Intelligence and Analysis, said that threats from domestic actors will “continue to be characterized primarily by lone offenders or small cells motivated to violence by a combination of racial, religious, gender, or anti-government grievances; conspiracy theories; and personalized factors,” and be motivated by the Presidential Election and the Israel/Hamas conflict.
“Between September 2023 and July 2024, [domestic violent extremists] driven by various anti-government, racial, or gender-related motivations have conducted at least four attacks in the Homeland, one of which resulted in a death.7 US law enforcement disrupted at least seven additional DVE plots,” according to the assessment.; “Two HVE attacks, partially motivated by the Israel-HAMAS conflict, also occurred during this timeframe, and law enforcement disrupted at least three other HVE plots.”
Mass shootings in the United States over the last year “last year were not motivated by an ideology, but were rather associated with suspected or confirmed mental illness or driven by relationship grievances,” the Department assesses.
DHS officials said that they are aware that the upcoming anniversary of Oct. 7th;may add “even more fuel to an already challenging and heightened threat environment.”
The officials, on a call with reporters, said they’ve communicated this to their state and local partners.
Foreign terrorist organizations also maintain a threat to conduct or inspire attacks in the United States, the assessment said.
“These organizations maintain worldwide networks of supporters that could target the Homeland. FTO media outlets promote violent rhetoric intended to inspire U.S. persons to mobilize to violence, while foreign terrorists continue engaging online supporters to solicit funds; create and share media; and encourage followers to attack the Homeland, U.S. interests, and what they perceive as the West,” the report said.
Iran is also a concern for DHS officials, who say that they have threatened former U.S. government officials including former President Donald Trump.
“We’ve been very, very clear that is a threat vector that we are extremely concerned about and monitoring very closely, working to gain as much information and fidelity on as we possibly can,” the official said.
In addition to Iran, China and Russia also “pose a host of threats” to the United States will attempt to use a blend of subversive, undeclared, criminal, and coercive tactics to seek new opportunities to undermine confidence in U.S. democratic institutions and domestic social cohesion.
The department has concluded, as intelligence agencies have, they will likely attempt to interfere in the election.
It’s not just the election; DHS assesses that that nation state backed “criminal hacktivists” will attempt to position themselves on critical infrastructure networks.
Along the southern border, DHS assesses that the challenges will continue, including from Individuals on the terror watchlist who the report says will evolve their tactics and try and exploit vulnerabilities along the border.
The official noted that the number of suspects encountered on the terror watch list have also decreased from year to year.
The encounters do remain high, the assessment notes, but due to the recently policies put in place, they are decreasing.
