WASHINGTON — Allies of Donald Trump see Tuesday’s debate as a pivotal moment for the Republican presidential nominee — a chance to shore up support and turn the corner from Kamala Harris’ post-nomination “honeymoon.”
“Failure would give people permission to leave,” said a former adviser, adding that Trump must clear a bar set by his own performance against Hillary Clinton in the second presidential debate of 2016, when he was seen as taking her to task on policy issues and skipped the rage-infused language of his stump speech.
Fresher in people’s minds, however, will be the previous debate, where Trump finished on a high note; not only did President Joe Biden’s stumbling answers ultimately lead to his replacement, but Trump’s own performance was also largely lauded by Republicans as disciplined.
The intervening weeks, however, have been a roller coaster. As Biden floundered, Republicans rallied around Trump at the party’s convention in Milwaukee after a failed assassination attempt on July 13.
But things quickly shifted when Biden dropped his re-election bid. Harris’ unexpected ability to quickly consolidate Democratic support, raising significant amounts of cash and generating new enthusiasm in the party, left many Republicans fretting.
Trump allies are hopeful that the debate will cap a turnaround from the recent weeks of tumult and help him enter the fall on a competitive footing.
“Everyone on Team Trump firmly believes that we’re better-positioned to win,” said a source close to Trump. “Harris won’t be able to convince working-class Americans that she is telling the truth about her policy reversals, and they’re not going to roll the dice on her.”
Trump has a long track record of getting his supporters excited that he’s finally dedicated to staying on message, or close to it, and talking policy, only to moments later veer completely off script and say something that triggers blowback. Even the most optimistic allies admit that always remains a risk, but they hope he can remain focused in the final weeks and stick to talking substance.
Harris poses a different set of challenges for Trump on the debate stage.
Harris, who has been participating in mock debates, going through lengthy question-and-answer sessions and reading pages of briefing books prepared by her staff, is hoping for a chance to needle Trump or provoke an outburst from him, two sources familiar with her preparations said.
Both campaigns are racing to define Harris, and Trump’s advisers have said he’ll be successful in the debate if he ties her record in the White House to Biden’s. According to a source familiar with the preparations, Trump took part in an extensive debate prep session focused on policy at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida on Sunday, with additional sessions planned for Monday.
“In this debate, President Trump will tie Kamala Harris to her record: her record on the border, her record with global instability and her record being the deciding vote for high prices,” Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Trump, said on a call with reporters Monday. “And if President Trump ties Kamala Harris to her record, which we are very confident he’ll do, that’ll be a success.”
Ultimately, said Brandon Scholz, a former Wisconsin GOP chair, the national partisan divide will dominate, and it will still be up to that small percentage of undecideds in battleground states who could dictate the election. The results of the debate, however, could be persuasive to those people, he added.
“If he gets out of that debate and it’s neutral and she doesn’t take him down, that’s the best scenario for him,” Scholz said.
Trump isn’t yet out of the woods; while a poll published over the weekend showed a tight race, Harris continues to draw in more campaign cash than Trump. An adviser said that if the election were held today, a Trump victory wouldn’t be guaranteed.
Supporters of Trump say they have seen a shift in recent days — he’s scheduling more events and talking less about Harris’ gender and race, and he isn’t digging up old grievances aimed at fellow Republicans — like going after Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. And on Friday, Trump scored a significant win as the judge in his criminal case in New York City delayed sentencing until after the November election.
“There’s a bit of a reset happening, and you’re going to see a Trump campaign that’s more focused and kind of goes back to the future, to where he was this spring,” said Trump donor Dan Eberhart, CEO of the energy company Canary.
The addition of more senior campaign staff members, including 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, has reassured some worried allies who are hopeful that Trump is now on a trajectory-smoothing path. His arrival has prompted some campaign staffers to rethink their approach, said a source close to the campaign.
“His presence alone is driving people to think twice about what they’re doing,” said the source, who said Trump’s “psyche” appears to have improved.
A campaign official said that the team is being expanded at a crucial point in the race and that “the more confident people on board, the better.”
Eberhart credited the fresh dynamics of the race with getting Trump to shift his focus and said outside pressures have yielded dividends before.
“Trump is better when he is behind — more focused,” he said. “If you look at why he won in 2016, I think he was legitimately playing like he was behind. And that creates more discipline.”
Polls frequently show Trump scoring better marks on the economy — even as he often strays from the message when his campaign pushes him to focus on it.
“They’ve really begun to focus on the economy. Of course, immigration, too,” said Ed Broyhill, a North Carolina Republican National Committeeman and a fundraiser for Trump. “I think they’ve gotten the message.”
Harris’ replacing Biden on the ballot scrambled the strategy for Trump and his team — leaving a period when it seemed to some that the message was off. Trump, himself, at times seemed reluctant to move on from his old adversary, still bringing Biden up at his events and lashing out over the switch on social media.
“What they’re frustrated about is the fact that they have to do all the defining again after spending a $100 million-plus on Biden,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said.
A Republican source in touch with the campaign who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly recalled spending weeks twisting in knots, awaiting an end to the Harris “honeymoon,” as enthusiasm buoyed her. The Trump ally feared Trump’s operation had grown comfortable as Biden collapsed in the polls.
“Donors have been very frustrated, [wondering] how are we going to win this thing,” the source said.
Timing may be the trick to righting the ship, some Trump allies speculate.
“The Democrats and the Harris campaign have done an amazing job at messaging and hitting at the right time. The sun, moon and the stars all came together. But eventually, the sun, moon and the stars separated,” Scholz said.
Initially, Trump’s team appeared flatfooted in responding to Harris and failed to respond to the wave of energy that elevated her for weeks. But Scholz said he believes the enthusiasm gap has narrowed now, and he pointed to several ads attacking Harris, including on the border and on “Bidenomics,” which he said are helping cast doubt on her candidacy.
Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., a Trump surrogate, said: “If Trump is in the race, he is going to be a factor in everyone’s decision. You can’t ignore that. [But] as you see from the polls, on the issues that matter to most Americans, they favor his record over hers.”
