Investor Michael Burry, who rose to fame when he predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble before the 2008 financial crisis, has warned that the U.S. economy is likely to enter a recession this year.
Burry said on social media that inflation has peaked, but will reach a high point again as part of the same cycle once the economy slows and the U.S. Federal Reserve takes action to stimulate a depressed economy.
Burry, who was portrayed by actor Christian Bale in the movie “The Big Short,” said he expects the Fed eventually to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth, fueling another bout of inflation.
“Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle. We are likely to see [the consumer price index] lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition,” he said in a tweet Sunday. “Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It’s not hard.”
Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle. We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It’s not hard.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is in charge of defining business cycles based on a variety of indicators. While the period we’re in may bear some of the hallmarks of a recession, the group has not yet declared an official slump.

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