Donald Trump‘s chances of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in November have increased among bookmakers following this week’s start of the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
As of Tuesday evening, predictive betting website Polymarket listed Trump as a slight favorite to win the election, giving the former president a 50 percent chance to Harris’ 48 percent. The odds were reversed when the DNC got underway in Chicago just 24 hours earlier, when Harris was listed as the slight favorite.
Harris’ odds of beating Trump peaked on August 15, when Polymarket gave her a 54 percent chance of winning to Trump’s 44 percent. While the vice president’s odds worsened by a small amount on Tuesday, they have generally been on an upward trajectory over the past few weeks.
In a Tuesday post to X (formerly Twitter), Polymarket shared a short video showing the changing odds in the presidential race since June 25, when President Joe Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee. Trump had a relatively comfortable lead over the Democratic ticket until earlier this month, when Harris drew level with the former president.
Meanwhile, rival bookmaker BetOnline.ag listed both Trump and Harris with -110 odds to win as of Tuesday evening. The company told Newsweek that Harris had been leading last week, “but steady betting on Trump over the past two days has pulled the numbers back to even.”
Most recent polls continue to indicate that Harris has a small but significant lead over Trump nationally. An average of surveys compiled by polling website FiveThirtyEight shows Harris leading Trump by 2.8 points as of Tuesday night.
In addition, the polling picture now slightly favors Harris in several key battleground states. The latest FiveThirtyEight averages show that the vice president is ahead by 0.7 points in Arizona, 1.3 points in Pennsylvania, 2.8 points in Michigan and 3.2 points in Wisconsin.
Trump has a 1.2 percent lead in Georgia and a tiny 0.2 percent lead in North Carolina, according to Tuesday’s FiveThirtyEight averages. The race is dead even in Nevada, where the average shows that each candidate is favored by 44.6 percent of voters.
With all signs pointing to a very close race in November, both campaigns will be hoping to capitalize on whatever momentum they can achieve ahead of November 5.
The Harris campaign could see some benefits from the DNC after it concludes on Thursday, as major political party conventions typically result in a slight polling bump.
The first day of the DNC included speeches from Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, first lady Jill Biden and a surprise short speech by Harris. Biden delivered the night’s closing keynote address.
Day two of the DNC was expected to include appearances by several pro-Harris Republicans, including former Trump White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham, along with speeches from independent Senator Bernie Sanders, former President Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama.
