Another poll of Pennsylvania voters released on Tuesday showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump—after other polls showed a tightening race in the crucial swing state.
Harris is poised to become the Democratic presidential nominee after President Joe Biden ended his campaign earlier in July. His withdrawal followed weeks of pressure from Democrats concerned about whether he could defeat Trump in November following a poorly received debate performance last month that fueled questions about his age, as well as polls showing him trail Trump in key swing states.
Democrats quickly coalesced around Harris, who has appeared to secure enough delegates to win the nomination ahead of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August. Prior to Biden’s exit, polls showed Harris performing similarly, if not worse, than Biden in swing states. But as her candidacy generates new enthusiasm among Democrats, polls have shown her standing in the polls rise in recent days.
A new survey of 600 likely voters in Pennsylvania found Harris leading Trump by 4 points in the state.
Forty-seven percent of respondents said they are planning to back Harris in November, while 43 percent said they are voting for Trump. An additional 3 percent said they are planning to vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
The poll was conducted by Susquehanna Polling & Research from July 22 to July 28.
Susquehanna was among the most accurate pollsters of Pennsylvania in 2020. Their final poll showed Trump leading Biden by one point (49 percent to 48 percent). Biden ultimately carried Pennsylvania b 1.2 points, meaning there was only a roughly 2-point difference between the poll and final result.
Pennsylvania is viewed as a must-win for Harris due to the state’s 19 Electoral College votes, making it the largest swing state in the country.
Harris is reportedly considering Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as a potential running mate. His supporters believe he could help her carry the state in November, though some Democrats fear his positions on issues including Israel and charter schools could alienate progressive voters.
It backed former President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, but Trump flipped it in 2016 due to his strength with rural voters. However, Biden’s inroads with suburban voters, as well as his strength in cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, helped him win it back for Democrats in 2020.
On Monday, a Commonwealth Foundation poll found Harris leading Trump by 1 point in a head-to-head (48 percent to 47 percent). When other candidates were polled, Harris and Trump were tied, each receiving 44 percent support. The poll was conducted among 80 registered voters from July 2 to July 25.
Elsewhere, a Fox News poll conducted among 1,034 registered voters from July 22 to July 24 found Harris and Trump tied in a head-to-head, each receiving 49 percent of the vote. When other candidates were included, Harris led Trump by two points (45 percent to 43 percent).
However, one poll delivered better news for Trump.
A poll from The Telegraph, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found Trump leading by four points (46 percent to 42 percent) among 851 likely voters from July 22 to July 24.
