With the Democrats managing to dodge the normal midterm disaster, suddenly President Biden has become a political juggernaut with his nomination for a second term practically a foregone conclusion — at least according to the New York-Washington leftist punditocracy.
Too bad nobody asked the voters.
Unfortunately for the Democrats and their allies in the media, Biden’s polling remains weak, and rumblings to replace Biden on the 2024 ballot are more likely than not going to get louder in 2023.
The newfound enthusiasm for Biden is even more puzzling given that practically no Democrat wanted him anywhere near their campaign. Nevertheless, when you look at polling just before the midterm election and current polling, there is not much difference in public unease with Biden.
In the most recent YouGov 54 percent of voters don’t want Biden to run again with just 26 percent in favor. Every demographic is against a Biden reelection attempt, except Black voters who back a Biden reelect at 46 percent in favor to 32 percent against. This result not much better from the week prior where 55 percent of voters were opposed to a Biden reelect with just 21 percent in favor.
Even more concerning is Biden’s weakness within the Democratic Party.
Democrats only favor a Biden reelect at 47 percent in favor to 27 percent opposed. Ominously, self-identified liberals are against a Biden reelect 41 percent to 38 percent in favor. Given that it is the ideologues — both liberals and conservatives — that have outside influence in the primary process, any weakness with that base is concerning.
The curious thing about the rush to a Biden coronation in the media is how the various pundits and sycophants are running in the opposite direction of the public. Since the Democrats’ midterm overperformance, Biden’s polling is not improving.
In the late October YouGov benchmark, support for a Biden reelect was under water at 22 percent in favor and 54 percent opposed. Terrible numbers, but the deficit of 32 points is a bit narrower than the current deficit of 34 points. While that erosion is not large and can be considered roughly the same, the real problem lies inside the aggregate numbers. In October, Biden could at least count on support from a plurality of liberals (36 percent in favor, 31 percent opposed). Not anymore.
Biden actually is barely ahead of Trump on this reelect question (but not much). Currently, a Trump reelect is opposed by 56 percent of the public and supported by 27 percent. Republicans favor a Trump reelect attempt by 27 points — as opposed to Biden’s 20-point advantage with Democrats. Like Biden, Trump has a problem with the GOP ideological base, having just a 12-point advantage with conservatives against Biden’s 3-point advantage.
