The Republican Senate primary in Ohio has turned nasty, negative and chaotic. Again.
The race to face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is a three-way contest between state Sen. Matt Dolan, business executive Bernie Moreno and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. And the relative peace that held for months of campaigning has been shattered by what has become an all-out brawl in the final leg of the race.
Moreno compared Dolan to anti-Trump Republicans Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney, and said LaRose will “lie through his teeth to get political power.” Dolan called Moreno a “phony” and he concluded that LaRose’s mishandling of a constitutional amendment on abortion rights “dismisses” him from the race. LaRose said Moreno is “very liberal” and is part of the “corporate elite” and that Dolan is an “anti-gun guy” with a “very shoddy” abortion record.
In a sign of the last minute chaos, a long discussed story about an Adult Friend Finder account linked to Moreno published on Thursday by the Associated Press after bubbling on social media and behind the scenes for weeks. The episode raises the prospect of even more personal attacks over the final days.
Despite the GOP’s best efforts to avoid it, for the second straight election cycle the Buckeye State is home to a bruising intraparty fight, one that Republicans worry could produce lasting damage to the eventual nominee and threaten their chances of flipping the seat — and the Senate. The stakes are even higher than 2022, because there’s an incumbent this time; the winner will have to take on the battle-tested Brown.
“It’s pretty ugly. Unfortunately, we’re at a phase where there’s a lot of negative advertising. I think, obviously, that will eventually harm the nominee,” said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). “The more negative dollars you spend attacking each other, the more it makes it harder. We’ve certainly learned that the hard way.”
In the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race, Mehmet Oz never fully consolidated support after narrowly beating Dave McCormick in the primary. The GOP lost that race to Democrat John Fetterman. Vance himself emerged bruised from a brutal 2022 primary and entered the general election with a divided Ohio Republican Party as well as an uphill financial battle, though he ended up winning by 6 points.
This election cycle, Senate Republicans moved to quickly shut down ugly primaries and coalesce support behind their preferred candidates. It worked in other places, but not Ohio. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and its chair, Steve Daines (R-Mont.), urged each of the three campaigns to refrain from going negative until they felt it was absolutely necessary, according to a person familiar with their strategy. Party strategists were pleased the candidates honored that request for much of the contest.
But now, the bloodbath has arrived. Republicans are watching anxiously.
“Whoever comes out is still gonna have to turn around and run against one of the better campaigners Ohio’s ever seen in Sherrod Brown,” said Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio). His advice: “Get their message out to the people on what they’re going to do on behalf of Ohio, and not necessarily why the other guy’s a bad guy.”
The Senate is closely divided, and Republicans need to pick up just one seat beyond the lay-up open race in West Virginia to win the majority. The GOP’s focus is trained on Brown and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). Brown has handily dispatched all three of his past Senate opponents, even as the state has grown redder and Trumpier.
Both Dolan and Moreno are personally wealthy, and Moreno has the backing of former President Donald Trump and many conservative senators, including Vance. Dolan has the endorsement of the state’s governor, Mike DeWine, and former Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio). Polling suggests the race is a toss up, and in recent weeks the candidates and their allies have begun unloading months and months of tension.
As the primary enters its most brutal phase, the frustration is palpable.
“They can’t run on a record. They have to run on nastiness and made-up lies,” Moreno said in an interview with POLITICO during the Lake County GOP’s Lincoln Day Dinner, where the candidates sat at adjacent tables near the front of the room. “It’s sad to see Republicans repeating left-wing talking points.”
Minutes later, Moreno took the stage to address hundreds of Republican attendees and attacked Dolan for his endorsements from “RINOs” like Portman and DeWine. (LaRose and Dolan largely trained their harsh words on Brown and Biden in this particular forum.)
At times, it’s hard to keep track of the attacks, which have Republicans back in D.C. wincing.
“It’s a classic trap. And quite honestly, I don’t think that dirtiness helps that much,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). “It’s a lot more potential higher cost in a general for not much benefit in the primary.”
Tillis added that Brown, whom he called a friend, is “a very formidable opponent.”
Democrats have celebrated the late outbreak of fighting, believing that it will damage the eventual nominee. And a Democratic super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer made its preferred pick clear on Thursday when it aired a TV ad meant to boost Moreno over Dolan and LaRose.
“We expect whoever comes out of that primary will likely be the most extreme and likely be damaged,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chair of the party’s Senate campaign arm.
The airwaves are swamped with negative disses. Ads knock Dolan as “ unfit to serve in the Senate” because he “publicly attacked Trump calling him a liar” and warn that in Columbus he pushed through tax breaks that benefited businesses like his. LaRose, ads warn, was called “ a champion for trans equality” who supports taxpayer funding for Planned Parenthood and “ changed Ohio’s ballot language to tamper with the election results.”
Moreno is dubbed a closet Democrat who was sued for “stealing his employee’s pay,” opposes the Second Amendment, supports Hillary Cinton and has “the same dangerous views” as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and like-minded House Democrats.
“They say nasty names about each other, they call each other liberals and Democrats,” Brown said. “Calling somebody Hillary’s friend is about the lowest thing you can get in that primary.”
Brown, meanwhile, has been on air for more than a month airing positive spots touting his work to boost Ohio steel, protect pensions and help veterans get health care. He had $13.5 million banked by the end of February, according to his campaign finance reports. That’s several times what any of his GOP opponents had on hand — though two of them can loan their campaigns large sums if needed.
And the attacks clearly rattle their various targets. LaRose devoted some of his speech to the Lake County GOP to stressing that he does not support gender-transition surgeries for minor children.
“I don’t think that the attacks that have been lodged against me are things that Ohioans believe, ridiculous things like that I’m for the radical trans agenda,” he said in an interview after his speech.
While there’s broad concern from Republicans on the tenor of the closing days of the race, some see tough primaries as good training for the general election.
“Politics is not for sissies,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is running for GOP leader and hasn’t endorsed any Ohio candidates. “It just makes them tougher in the general, whoever survives.”
Plus, some note, the internecine mudslinging is not as prolonged as it was in 2022. During that bout, Josh Mandel and Mike Gibbons nearly got in a physical fight, Jane Timken made an insult about male “inadequacies” and Trump briefly forgot Vance’s first name — just to name a few bizarre moments.
That primary led Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC, to spend $32 million to boost Vance against Democrat Tim Ryan, in part because Ryan’s fundraising dwarfed Vance’s considerably after that messy affair. Republicans won — but they’d prefer not to have to put the state GOP’s fractured coalition back together again.
“Modern politics is this way,” said Ohio GOP Chair Alex Triantafilou. “And you know, frankly, the one two years ago was worse.”
