President Donald Trump isn\u2019t on the ballot this year, but with roughly six months before Election Day, he\u2019ll still likely be the biggest factor in determining the fortunes of the Republican Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republicans have lost a number of elections in the past six months \u2014 sometimes by overwhelming margins \u2014 giving Democrats a sense of momentum. That feeling is exacerbated by Trump\u2019s low approval ratings, his inability to lower stubbornly high costs and an ongoing war with Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On top of all that is the historical trend that the party that controls the White House generally loses congressional seats during the midterms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nevertheless, Republicans across the country say they see reason for optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
NBC News reached out to more than 120 members of the Republican National Committee and GOP activists across the country to get a sense of how they view their electoral chances at this point in time. In roughly 30 interviews, these Republicans said they believe the party can hold on to its majority in Congress. But they also had clear ideas about what they want from leaders at the national level in order to stave off a potential blue wave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe 2026 midterms will come down to one simple question: Who is delivering real results for the American people?\u201d Joseph Wood, chair of the Arkansas Republican Party, said. \u201cPresident Trump\u2019s administration has already run circles around the failed President Biden years, securing the border, slashing taxes, cutting government waste and restoring law and order.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republicans received a boost this month when two court decisions gave them the upper hand in the redistricting fight, likely reducing the number of congressional seats Democrats can pick up in November. The GOP has also raised significantly more money than major Democratic groups, and there is cautious optimism that gas prices will go down if Trump can wrap up the Iran war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cBefore the redistricting conversation, it seemed like it could be tough sledding, but after the Supreme Court ruling, I think we are playing with house money,\u201d AK Kamara, the RNC national committeeman from Minnesota, said. \u201cI think Republicans are going to be able to pick up lots of seats without having to flip seats.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI think our party will show patience,\u201d Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said of Republican voters dealing with high gas prices as a result of the Iran war. \u201cIt just needs to be explained to our voters under 55 or 50. When explained that it\u2019s temporary, Iowans have patience.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A top concern for Republican officials is turning out the base even though Trump won\u2019t be on the ballot \u2014 and getting the sometimes easily distracted president to turn his attention and messaging to the economy and pocketbook issues, including focusing on the \u201cbig, beautiful bill,\u201d a sweeping tax cut package that is Trump\u2019s biggest second-term legislative victory. The law has since been rebranded by many Republicans as the \u201cWorking Families Tax Cut.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe economy is always a top issue and we have a great story to tell,\u201d Jason Simmons, chair of the North Carolina Republican Party, said. \u201cWe stopped the largest tax increase in American history and passed the Working Families Tax Cut, putting more money in the pockets of those who deserve it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The RNC did not return a request for comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Policy issues on voters\u2019 minds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Iran war \u2014 which Trump said he initially thought could last four to five weeks \u2014 is now in its third month. The president has said it\u2019s almost over, and the administration continues to negotiate an end to the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The war has caused a split in his \u201cAmerica First\u201d political base that wanted a focus on domestic issues like immigration. That schism has complicated Trump\u2019s efforts to stabilize his approval ratings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In a PBS\/Marist poll released late last month, just 33% said they approved of Trump\u2019s handling of the Iran war, and 35% said they approved of his handling of the economy, the lowest figure for either of Trump\u2019s two terms in office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A lack of focus on the economy and the potential of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East concerns many Republicans, according to the dozens of interviews NBC News conducted, but many take comfort in the idea that things can change quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI am not concerned at this point,\u201d Janet Fogarty, an RNC national committeewoman from Massachusetts, said. \u201cThere is plenty of time before voters start focusing on the November election. Also, the polls have always been off in the past several election cycles, particularly as it pertains to Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump so far has not delved deeply into the overt 2026 midterm politics. He has done few rallies and declined to endorse in key Senate primaries in Georgia and Texas, and his attention has been taken up by Iran and side projects like renovating the reflecting pool on the National Mall and constructing a White House ballroom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Last week, he told NBC News that Republicans\u2019 chances in large part will come down to whether the GOP-led Congress is able to pass the SAVE America Act, a sweeping elections bill that would require voters to provide proof of citizenship like a passport or birth certificate to register to vote in federal elections, among other changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cPassing the SAVE America Act is very important. If we don\u2019t pass the SAVE America Act, I feel less good,\u201d Trump said in a phone interview. \u201cIn many cases, they [Trump voters] won\u2019t love the Republican Party if they don\u2019t pass the SAVE America Act. I can only do so much.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump has repeatedly emphasized the importance of the proposal for Republicans\u2019 midterm chances, but few Republicans brought it up unprompted in NBC News\u2019 dozens of interviews.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The bill has been bogged down in the Senate and does not appear to have the votes to pass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republican officials said they believe the \u201cbig, beautiful bill\u201d is where the party needs to focus. Sixty percent of savings from the tax overhaul are projected to go to the top fifth of households, according to the Tax Policy Center, which conducts research and analysis on tax legislation. It also included provisions intended to fulfill his campaign pledge of \u201cno tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security\u201d \u2014 even though many middle-income families say they are not seeing benefits as large as they expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Republican officials said they\u2019ve heard voters happy with the effects of the laws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe are a huge manufacturing state, and here in Michigan, the no tax on overtime has been hugely popular,\u201d Michigan GOP Chairman and state Sen. Jim Runestad said. \u201cI actually hear from folks on the street about it. It has been huge.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe only other thing I hear about a lot is gas prices,\u201d he added. \u201cAnd that can be reversed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n GOP cash advantage<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Republicans also find themselves in a position that\u2019s unique in recent election cycles: a cash advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The constellation of national GOP organizations, including the Republican National Committee, the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. and groups that support House and Senate candidates, collectively have $843 million cash on hand. That number sits at $304 million for similar Democratic groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The money advantage does not guarantee victory \u2014 in 2024, for instance, Democrats had a major money lead and Republicans currently control the White House and Congress \u2014 but it does give the party a huge resource boost when getting its message out to voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cRarely do we see the Republicans have a money advantage over Democrats,\u201d Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power said. \u201cThis cycle we have that. President Trump has made sure all the political entities have raised and spent money in concert.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI wouldn\u2019t trade our position with the Democrats going into the midterms,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Turning out the Trump base without Trump<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Of lingering concern for many Republicans is whether voters who turn out only when Trump is on the ballot will vote in the midterms when he is not. Trump\u2019s political superpower since entering politics in 2015 has been engaging voters who had not previously been involved in politics, known as low-propensity voters. It has helped build his MAGA movement and notch huge wins for Republicans, but a recurring issue has been those voters staying home when the president is not running.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe have not cracked that code,\u201d said the chair of a Southern state Republican Party who was granted anonymity to talk freely about his midterm concerns. \u201cWe have seen that in the past, and with some of the races this year. \u2026 If we don\u2019t figure out a way to energize MAGA voters, it\u2019s going to be a real problem \u2014 especially considering some of the things already working against Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Party officials are aware of their past problems with Trump-centric voters who don\u2019t vote when the president isn\u2019t on the ballot, and they say they have been working on fixes. The first attempt was in the December special election in Tennessee\u2019s 7th Congressional District, where Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn with nearly 54% of the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cSome are disconnected from politics, especially in a midterm where they might not even know their senator is up for re-election,\u201d a senior national Republican strategist said. \u201cTennesseee was a test run. The polling was looking very close, and we started sending out mailers with dates of the election, and President Trump did a tele-town hall rally dialed out to low- and mid- propensity voters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt was an education barnstorm, and the numbers got back in our favor,\u201d the person added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some of the president\u2019s vanity projects, like the White House ballroom and renovations to the reflecting pool, also worry Republicans, who feel Trump\u2019s attention can too easily be captured by things that are at best distractions and at worst turnoffs for voters who might see the projects as out of touch during difficult economic times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe have to stop talking about a ballroom,\u201d said a Republican official from a Midwest swing state. \u201cPeople can\u2019t afford groceries. I think Republicans have a good story to tell, but we need our top messenger to be telling it day after day.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Last week, at an event presided over by a pastor, a 22-foot gold statue of Trump was unveiled at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami. Because the event was led by a pastor, it prompted pushback from those who saw it as a symbol of false worship. Trump called into the event and said it was \u201cdone out of love.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Evangelical Pastor Mark Burns, who led the event, was forced to later clarify the statute was \u201cnot created for worship. It was created as a symbol of resilience, patriotism, courage and gratitude.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe don\u2019t need that kind of distraction,\u201d a longtime GOP state party chairman said of the event. \u201cI don\u2019t know who that is for, who it\u2019s going to convince to vote for Republicans if they are on the fence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s the sort of distraction that worries Republicans, because whether or not he\u2019s on the ballot, the election will hinge on Trump and his influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s an idea not lost on Trump himself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI am on the ballot,\u201d Trump told NBC News last week. \u201cAnd my voters love me.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n