Back-to-back redistricting victories in court have Republicans gaining confidence in their midterm chances. But President Donald Trump\u2019s lagging approval ratings and other political indicators continue to threaten the GOP\u2019s grip on Congress six months out from the midterm elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Virginia Supreme Court\u2019s Friday decision blocking a gerrymandered map, which could have netted Democrats up to four House seats, comes less than two weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court limited the use of race in redistricting, which has Republican-led states moving to draw out majority-Black, Democratic-held districts in the South in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But as one structural piece of the midterms gets better for Republicans, the overall national mood remains sour for the party. Poll after poll shows Trump\u2019s approval below 40% and Americans deeply frustrated with his handling of the economy. A handful of reputable polls shows Democrats erasing the GOP\u2019s long-held edge on the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republican and Democratic strategists who spoke with NBC News, granted anonymity to share their candid thoughts about these developments, may disagree on which side has the edge. But they agreed on an important point: Neither side won or lost the House in May, even with those court decisions altering the battlefield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Carrie Dann, the managing editor of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, told NBC News that despite the \u201cblow\u201d from the court decisions, she believes Democrats are still \u201cfavored\u201d to win back the House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRepublicans have undoubtedly strengthened their structural advantage and could now theoretically net as many as 13 seats from redistricting. But the national political environment remains grim for the GOP, and several of the seats Republicans redrew in their favor remain very competitive in 2026,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cA more realistic net gain for Republicans from redistricting alone is five to seven seats, which is unlikely to be enough to stop significant Democratic gains in November,\u201d Dann added. \u201cDemocrats remain the favorites in November, just no longer overwhelmingly so.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Virginia ruling hits Democrats especially hard, because outside of California, it was the party\u2019s best chance at netting a significant number of seats in the redistricting battles, and the party sunk tens of millions of dollars into getting the maps approved by voters. The ruling comes as a handful of Southern states like Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama and South Carolina are moving to quickly redraw lines in light of last week\u2019s Supreme Court ruling, new lines that could eliminate a Democratic-held district in each state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some of the redistricting gains are only in pencil at this point, as House races don\u2019t always mimic the past elections used to measure them when political mapmakers are doing the drawing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the total picture on redistricting \u2014 after a series of previous setbacks in places like California and Indiana prompted GOP recriminations about mid-decade redistricting \u2014 have Republicans more optimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhile they may have an advantage on the environment, we have an advantage on the terrain. The terrain doesn\u2019t change, the environment does,\u201d one national Republican strategist involved in House races told NBC News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another national Republican House strategist echoed that sentiment, while also pointing to the GOP fundraising edge across party groups and super PACs as another important advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rep. Richard Hudson, who leads the House GOP campaign committee, said in a statement that the Virginia court ruling \u201cis yet another sign Republicans have the momentum heading into November. We\u2019re on offense, and we\u2019re going to win.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While some Democrats are willing to admit that they\u2019re likely to end up on the wrong side of the redistricting battle, they still believe they\u2019re on track to win the broader war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of House Democrats\u2019 campaign arm, said in a Friday statement that they \u201cremain poised to retake the House majority in November\u201d despite the Virginia court ruling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Compared to the party\u2019s national loss in 2024, Democrats have enjoyed a string of flips and overperformances in 2025 and 2026 elections, from special elections for congressional and state legislative districts to statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia. Earlier this week, Michigan Democrats won a state Senate special election by about 19 points in a district then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried by 1 point in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A national Democratic strategist involved in House races told NBC News, \u201cWe\u2019d much rather be us than them, but this has never been a given for us at all. It is a setback \u2026 but this does not change our overall outlook in how we are thinking about and our confidence in winning back the House.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump\u2019s approval rating has been dipping into the 30s in some recent surveys, with clear signs the public is frustrated with his handling of the all-important issue of the economy. A recent NPR\/PBS\/Marist poll found that 61% of Americans disapprove of the president\u2019s handling of the economy, with similar shares saying the economy isn\u2019t working well for them and that Trump is to blame for rising gas prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And there\u2019s evidence that sentiment is spilling over into how Americans view Republicans too. Multiple polls over the last few months, including from NBC News and Fox News, have shown the GOP\u2019s edge on the economy evaporating, as more voters say they plan to support Democrats than Republicans in the fall campaigns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of the Republican strategists told NBC News that they believed there was still time for Trump and the party to shift public sentiment on the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cA lot of stuff has been upended by the conflict in Iran. I think everyone is on the same page that we would all like that to end for a variety of reasons,\u201d they said. \u201cWe\u2019re seeing the signs of an economy that is trying to come back to life \u2014 something like a conflict with Iran is what\u2019s holding it back. We get that done, I think we\u2019re in a good spot.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But voters were frustrated with the economy before the Iran war began, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And the Democratic strategist argued that the \u201cfrustration\u201d voters feel with rising prices isn\u2019t easy to paper over. Repeated headlines about projects like the White House ballroom, the person argued, give Democrats a clear contrast to argue that Republicans are showing Americans \u201cthey don\u2019t give a s— about them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cYou\u2019re paying $4.60 for gas and Trump and House Republicans want to use your tax dollars not to help lower prices but to pay for a gold-laden ballroom for him to drink Champagne in?\u201d the Democrat said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cYou can\u2019t dream up a better contrast if you tried.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n