WASHINGTON \u2014 The U.S. military blockade of Iran\u2019s ports will eventually deprive Tehran of crucial oil revenue, but the regime could likely withstand the pressure for months without a major economic crisis or lasting damage to its oil fields, energy industry analysts and two Western officials familiar with intelligence assessments told NBC News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After the blockade was imposed about a month ago, President Donald Trump and top officials in his administration suggested it would produce an immediate crisis for Iran\u2019s oil sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump said last month that Iran\u2019s oil infrastructure could \u201cexplode\u201d possibly within three days because the blockade meant Tehran could not export the oil it\u2019s pumping from wells. \u201cIf they don\u2019t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode,\u201d Trump told reporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That scenario did not materialize. But the naval blockade has prevented dozens of Iranian tankers off the coast from moving through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Administration officials say the blockade is designed to cut off Iran\u2019s oil exports \u2014 the country\u2019s economic lifeline \u2014 and force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bow to U.S. demands at the negotiating table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran has gradually begun to cut back oil production due to the blockade and, at some point within the next two months, it may run out of storage capacity for its oil and even be forced to shut down some wells. But most analysts say Iran can probably avoid shutting down wells since a significant amount of its oil can be consumed domestically, allowing most oil fields to keep operating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey\u2019re going to have to shut down about half of their production. They can keep producing because they can refine it domestically,\u201d said Robin Mills, a fellow at Columbia University\u2019s Center on Global Energy Policy and the CEO of Qamar Energy, an energy consulting firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran has experience when it comes to cutting back oil production, said Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group think tank. In the past 15 years, Iran had to slash its oil production twice due to U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to do tremendous damage to their infrastructure,\u201d Brew said. \u201cThey know how to do this. They\u2019ve done it before.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran has adapted to the blockade by scaling back oil production, reducing the amount of oil loaded onto tankers from about 11 million barrels per week to roughly 6 to 8 million barrels a week, according to Brew.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran also already sold large amounts of oil before the blockade at high prices and still has about 30 million barrels of oil at sea in Asia, which it can sell, giving it \u201ca bit of a cushion to fall back on,\u201d Brew said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, if the blockade remains in place, the economic consequences will grow by depriving the regime of oil revenue, causing a shortfall in the government budget, aggravating inflation and driving up the cost of imported goods that must now be delivered over land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s unclear if that economic pain, which could play out over several months, would be sufficient to push the regime into making significant concessions to the United States. And it\u2019s also unclear whether Trump is willing to wait that long for a possible tipping point in Tehran as the effects of Iran\u2019s closure of the Strait of Hormuz mount for the U.S. and the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a phone interview with NBC News on Friday, Trump said of the critical waterway: \u201cWe really control it; they don\u2019t. And we\u2019ve taken the business away from them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are \u201cno boats going into Iran,\u201d he added. \u201cThey\u2019re dying.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime in the past has shown it can absorb severe economic pressure as long as its grip on power is not threatened, Western officials and experts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cPresumably, they could carry on like this for months based on what they\u2019ve done in the past,\u201d Brew said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran\u2019s leadership will eventually have to confront a devastated economy and frustrated population. But for the moment, the regime \u2014 now dominated more than ever by hard-line elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \u2014 is firmly entrenched, the Western officials said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n