TALLAHASSEE, Fla. \u2014 Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday released a proposed redraw of the state\u2019s congressional lines that, on paper, would create four new GOP-leaning seats \u2014 an aggressive proposal that the governor is using to try to challenge anti-gerrymandering language in the state Constitution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Florida Legislature is set to begin a special session Tuesday to consider the maps, which are overwhelmingly expected to pass out of the GOP-dominated body, though even some Republicans have expressed annoyance about how DeSantis has handled the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The map was first released to Fox News, which got a view of the new proposal before Florida lawmakers had a chance to see it. The release came in the form of a graphic that clearly outlined the political leaning of each seat in blue and red, which itself could cause legal heartburn because the Florida Constitution includes anti-gerrymandering language, known as Fair Districts, that prevents the use of partisan \u201cintent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The current congressional maps, also drawn by DeSantis, give Republicans a 20-8 advantage over Democrats, a number that could change to 24-4 under the new DeSantis plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis is wild,\u201d said a Florida Republican consultant who has been involved in past redistricting cycles. \u201cI don\u2019t know how you can argue a red and blue map released from the governor\u2019s office doesn\u2019t show some form of partisan intent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Democratic state Sen. Carlos Guillermo Smith hinted that he believed the form of that early release alone will be enough to show there was partisan intent from the governor\u2019s office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe fact that the Governor shared his illegally-rigged Congressional map with @FoxNews before sharing it with state senators voting on them TOMORROW shows how partisan and illegitimate this process is,\u201d he posted on social media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DeSantis\u2019 office did not return a request seeking comment about the release. It issued a statement to Fox News saying the new maps are needed because the state got \u201cshortchanged\u201d during the 2020 census. DeSantis has repeatedly noted the state’s population growth since 2020 in comments about mid-decade redistricting, too. In a memo to lawmakers urging they support the map, he contends Florida was undercounted by more than 760,000 people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because of Fair Districts, Florida Republicans have discussed the need to push forward with redistricting through the lens of the census data and population shifts, rather than focusing on pure political gain like politicians in most other states that have redrawn their congressional maps over the past year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a memo to lawmakers, DeSantis also signaled his new map will be an attempt to force reconsideration of the Fair Districts provisions in the state Constitution. The language requires the consideration of race when drawing new political lines, which DeSantis says is unconstitutional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Properly understood, the Fourteenth Amendment forbids the government from divvying up the citizenry based in whole or in part upon race,” read the memo, which was penned by DeSantis general counsel David Axelman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the aggressive political gains the new map seeks have some Republicans questioning whether the governor has misread the current political atmosphere. Democrats across the country, including in Florida, have flipped GOP-held seats in special and regular elections amid President Donald Trump\u2019s low approval ratings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The concern rises from the idea that in order to create more GOP-leaning seats, the margins in many redrawn districts will get smaller for Republican incumbents. During what is expected to be a difficult 2026 midterm for the party, it could put those incumbents at risk of losing even if they have slight registration advantages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDoes he want us to lose? I don\u2019t understand this,\u201d said a veteran Florida Republican operative who has worked on several past redistricting cycles. \u201cThis feels like chaos theory for him with an eye towards running [for president] in 2028. This is going to put Republican members at risk, but I just don\u2019t get any sense he cares.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new map would get rid of the blue-leaning seat in Tampa currently held by Rep. Kathy Castor. She is the lone Democrat representing the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The proposal also appears to do away with the seat held by Democrat Darren Soto of Orlando, leaving one blue seat in the central part of the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And it would leave two Democratic-leaning seats in Palm Beach and Broward counties in South Florida, where Democrats currently have four districts: the seat recently vacated by former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, plus Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s, Jared Moskowitz’s and Lois Frankel’s districts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new map removes any Democratic-leaning seats from the Tampa and Orlando areas, which are home to many Democratic voters. In order to make seats in those areas all Republican-leaning on paper, it likely means the actual margins in the new Republican seats \u2014 and potentially some the surrounding ones \u2014 are now much smaller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cNew FL map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would target four Dem seats, aiming to convert a 20R-8D delegation to 24R-4D. But in a year like 2026, not all of the 24 seats would be safe for the GOP,\u201d Dave Wasserman, an election analyst for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, posted on X.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Florida is set to become the eighth state to redraw its lines this election cycle, after Trump kicked off a campaign last year to use redistricting to try to pad Republicans’ slim majority in the House. That, for now, has not gone exactly as the White House has planned, as Democratic-led states also started redrawing their congressional maps, meaning that it\u2019s unlikely that either political party won a huge number of new seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Florida\u2019s new map were to be implemented, it would cancel out the recent Democratic gains in Virginia, where voters approved a new plan that could see Democrats pick up four House seats. The Virginia Supreme Court heard arguments about the legality of that ballot measure push Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Florida, the new map will also almost certainly end up with the state Supreme Court, where DeSantis has appointed six of the current seven members. But given the language in the state Constitution about partisan \u201cintent,\u201d there are Republicans in the state not convinced the new map will pass legal muster, even with a favorable court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI think he [DeSantis] could eke out like a 4-3 win, or whatever,\u201d said a state lawmaker who’s a member of the Republican leadershipsaid. \u201cBut with redistricting, that\u2019s not a given. It\u2019s a pretty aggressive map, I just don\u2019t know how that might play out.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n