The crowded field of Democratic candidates running for governor in California could give Republicans a rare opening in the deep blue stronghold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
More than a half-dozen Democrats seen as serious contenders are competing in the Golden State\u2019s June 2 primary, where all candidates will appear on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters will advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
With no clear party front-runner, experts warn there\u2019s a real chance the Democrats splinter voter support, carving a path for two Republicans to move forward as a new model shows\u200b the possibility of a red-on-red race in the solidly blue state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe risk is that we have a situation where no Democrat makes the runoff. And if that happened, it would dramatically impact the general election,\u201d said Paul Mitchell, a California Democratic data expert who developed the model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt could, in a worst case scenario, mean Democrats don\u2019t take back the House because California had this fluky outcome of a primary.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dozens have poured into the wide-open race to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), and multiple Democratic hopefuls have the name-ID, experience and fundraising to be competitive. But four months out from the election, a standout front-runner has yet to emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere\u2019s six to eight Democratic candidates who are all splitting up the 60 percent of the vote that is going to go to Democrats, and then the 40 percent of votes that\u2019s going to go to Republicans is mostly being split by two candidates right now,\u201d Mitchell said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the Democratic side, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), former Rep. Katie Porter (D), Biden-era Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa are in the mix, as are billionaire Tom Steyer, former state Controller Betty Yee, former state Assembly Leader Ian Calderon and others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Former Vice President Kamala Harris passed on a run that experts said would have been field-clearing, as did Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.). Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis ended her bid to run for state treasurer instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Across the aisle, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton are the two leading Republican candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Mitchell\u2019s model, which uses polling and betting market information to model thousands of potential primary outcomes, the most likely dynamic was a classic Democrat-versus-Republican race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If that\u2019s the case, the Democratic contender is all but assured to win in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Democrats hold all statewide elected positions in California, they\u2019ve controlled the governorship for more than a decade, and the count of California Democratic voters is almost double that of Republicans in the state. Election handicappers have rated the race solidly blue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But with Democrats split in the primary, the model found that Republicans were the top two vote-getters in roughly 13 percent of the hypothetical outcomes, as of Friday evening updates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Though Mitchell notes the results don\u2019t mean \u201cthe sky is falling\u201d for Democrats it\u2019s a result that raises red flags for the party in a state where they dominate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe chance is small, but it exists. \u2026 If you told me there was a 11 percent chance I could get hit by a car if I cross the street, I wouldn\u2019t cross the street,\u201d California Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe threat is real, and there doesn\u2019t seem to be a whole lot of movement that could completely rule out the scenario of having two Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
California Democrats scored a big win last year with the success of Proposition 50, the redistricting effort Newsom championed to combat President Trump-backed maps in Texas. Democrats need to net just a handful of seats to flip Republicans\u2019 slim hold on the House in November, and the new maps create five Democratic pickup opportunities that could be critical for the party\u2019s midterm hopes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But a red-on-red governor\u2019s race at the top of the ballot in a midterm year could spell trouble for Democrats in key congressional races and other downballot contests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not having a marquee race \u201ccould spell trouble in a couple of these seats that Democrats can\u2019t afford to lose,\u201d Maviglio said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mitchell warned it could usher in \u201cmassive Democratic losses\u201d across the state. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jack Citrin, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley, stressed that it\u2019s still highly unlikely that Democrats get boxed out of the governor\u2019s race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the concerns about the long-shot possibility, he said, underscore frustrations with the Golden State\u2019s top-two primary system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
California is among just a handful of states where all candidates appear on a single primary ballot, rather than splitting into party contests. Proponents argue the system, approved by voters in 2010, has helped introduce more competitive primaries, while critics have panned it as convoluted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI would say that all of this public worrying about the two Republicans is really a cover for the fact that Democrats do not like this top-two system at all,\u201d Citrin said, suggesting there could be some \u201csubterranean maneuvering\u201d to eventually change the system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the meantime, it could end up helping Democrats add urgency to their midterm race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOf course, trumpeting the possibility of a [Republican] top two is a mobilization factor, it\u2019s kind of a warning: we got to get our act together,\u201d Citrin said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
An Emerson College Polling\/Inside California Politics survey in December found Bianco at the top of the race with 13 percent, statistically tied with Swalwell and Hilton, who were each just a point behind. A 31-percent plurality were undecided in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A January poll commissioned by Porter\u2019s team found the congresswoman in the lead among Democrats, and a February poll commissioned by Swalwell\u2019s team found him in second place, behind Bianco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI think it\u2019s likely that one or two Democrats will gain in support, and others may drop out or fade to low single digits by the primary,\u201d said Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The California Democratic Party is holding its annual conference later this month, but observers don\u2019t expect the party to get involved with a primary endorsement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere is no obvious leader of the Democratic Party in California other than Governor Newsom, and he\u2019s termed out,\u201d Pitney said. \u201cIt will all seem very obvious in hindsight after the primary, but right now it really appears to be a free-for-all.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n