Donald Trump loves a deadline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since taking office last year, the president has repeatedly used rigid timelines as a central tool in his push to broker peace, or at least force movement, in some of the world\u2019s most entrenched conflicts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He set deadlines for Hamas to respond to U.S.-backed peace proposals in Gaza, imposed a two-month window for Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal and issued multiple prospective cutoff dates for Ukraine and Russia to reach a settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now Trump has set another one, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said the U.S. wants a deal by June to bring an end to the nearly four-year war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe Americans are proposing the parties end the war by the beginning of this summer and will probably put pressure on the parties precisely according to this schedule,\u201d Zelenskyy told reporters on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey say that they want to do everything by June. And they will do everything to end the war. And they want a clear schedule of all events,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Neither the White House nor Moscow has confirmed a June deadline independently, and the White House did not immediately respond to NBC News\u2019 request for comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But deadlines alone are unlikely to shift the fundamentals of a war that will soon enter its fifth year, analysts warn, while the core disputes that have stalled previous peace efforts remain unresolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump has set and reset timelines in the Ukraine war before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
During his campaign, he repeatedly promised to end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, a pledge he later described as aspirational rather than literal. His special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, suggested both sides could reach an agreement within 100 days of Trump\u2019s inauguration, which also did not occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump has since floated multiple informal deadlines for progress, including fixed windows for Moscow to engage in talks and public time frames for reaching a settlement, none of which have produced a lasting ceasefire or agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An August deadline for a deal, set by Trump last year, passed without any sign of peace, as did hopes of a deal by Thanksgiving. In December, Trump said a draft agreement to end the war was \u201cclose to 95% done.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. held their first trilateral talks on a peace deal last month, with further talks set to take place on American soil soon, according to Zelenskyy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While officials have described the talks as constructive, major obstacles remain, chief among them the future of territory in eastern Ukraine where Moscow has shown little sign of softening its demands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Kremlin said Friday that Kyiv\u2019s military would have to pull out of the region, which is still partly held by Ukrainian forces, for any deal to end the war \u2014 a condition Kyiv says it will never accept.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The stalemate \u201ccould become unstuck by one side really crumbling under the pressure,\u201d said Moritz Brake, a senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis is what both sides, in probably their own ways, are hoping for,\u201d he told NBC News, with Ukraine looking to take advantage of a possible \u201cfragmentation of the Russian war effort,\u201d while Russia \u201cis really hoping that they can bring Ukraine down on the battlefield.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But\u201ctime is not on Ukraine\u2019s side,\u201d Michael Bociurkiw, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council\u2019s Eurasia Center, said on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cZelenskyy is in a corner right now,\u201d he said. Territory \u201cis the main issue, and that\u2019s not one where he can budge even little, even slightly, given the amount of blood that\u2019s been spilled.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Ukrainian leader said that failing to reach the June deadline would result in U.S. pressure on both sides, but Bociurkiw believes Ukraine would likely come off worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Trump is \u201ctalking about putting pressure on Kyiv in Moscow, it\u2019s the Ukrainians that are going to get the short end of the stick,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhenever the war could turn in Ukraine\u2019s favor, for example getting more high-powered, long-range missiles, a phone call happens between Trump and Putin, and everything changes,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, echoed Bociurkiw\u2019s thoughts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Trump administration has been reluctant to put any pressure on Russia but \u201cis in a position to exert coercion on Ukraine, and has done so repeatedly,\u201d he said, noting that the two factors that might lead to an end to the war remain the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Either Ukraine \u201creaches the decision that it has to capitulate\u201d as life in its cities becomes unsustainable, he said. \u201cOr some meaningful pressure is put on Russia to end the war, even if it is at the cost of making it a ceasefire which freezes the line of contact at Russia\u2019s present areas of control.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Winter has been brutal for Ukraine\u2019s civilian population, who have faced long stretches without power or heating due to Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. On Saturday, strikes forced nuclear power plants to cut output, Ukrainian energy company DTEK said on X, with Zelenskyy reporting over 400 drones and about 40 missiles launched overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For all the politics and posturing at the negotiation table, lives are being lost, and little has changed on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI don\u2019t see this war ending by summer,\u201d added Bociurkiw. \u201cUkraine is really taking a beating, especially civilians, but I don\u2019t see it ending unless there\u2019s a miracle.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n