House Republicans have an exodus problem. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
More than two dozen GOP lawmakers have already announced their decision to leave their seats at the end of the term, and the number is expected to grow in the coming weeks as lawmakers visit their families for the holidays, complicating Republican efforts to fend off a blue wave and keep their slim majority. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The reasons are numerous, and the trend is hardly new: Retirements have historically spiked for the party of the president in the midterm cycle. But the numbers are on track to reach 2018 levels \u2014 when Republicans got clobbered \u2014 and the dynamic is creating huge headaches for GOP leaders scrambling to protect President Trump from a Democratic House in his final years in office. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene\u2002<\/u><\/a>(R-Ga.) sent shock waves throughout Capitol Hill when she announced she would resign<\/u><\/a> as of Jan. 5, fed up with her party\u2019s handling of health care, foreign policy and other issues. Her departure echoes a broader trend: 23 House Republicans so far are retiring or seeking another office, while four Republicans have chosen to resign. In comparison, 17 Democrats are retiring or seeking another office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The roster spans the GOP spectrum \u2014 from high-profile conservatives such as Texas Reps. Chip Roy,<\/u><\/a> Jodey Arrington,<\/u><\/a> and Michael McCaul,<\/u><\/a> to battle-tested moderates such as Rep. Don Bacon\u2002<\/u><\/a>(Neb.), who has repeatedly run for reelection and won in a competitive district.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By this point in the 2018 midterm cycle during Trump\u2019s first term, 20 House Republicans had announced they wouldn\u2019t seek reelection, according to data from Ballotpedia. Six House Republicans had left office early or announced resignations. Those figures are close to the current numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Overall, 34 House Republicans chose not to seek reelection and 14 had resigned during their term in the 2018 cycle. Democrats ended up winning control of the House that year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cUltimately, the number of Republican retirements that we see compared to 2018 \u2014 I would imagine it would be close to the same number when all is said and done,\u201d said Erin Covey, House editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A number of House Republicans said they weren\u2019t surprised by the turnover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI\u2019ve been here five terms now, and every, you know, basically midterm cycle, you continue to see that play out where, you know, there\u2019s people that step aside. Some just \u2014 they\u2019ve been here long enough, and they\u2019ve decided they had enough,\u201d Rep. Brian Mast\u2002<\/u><\/a>(R-Fla.) said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cSome are tired of having to fight the swing districts that they\u2019ve had. There\u2019s a myriad of reasons. And some are just trying to move on to, you know, something that they might consider more fulfilling,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bacon told The Hill last month that \u201cif you\u2019re not fired up about winning, that\u2019s time to move on. And that\u2019s how I felt.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n Frustrations with leadership and congressional inaction have also dominated the lower chamber in recent months, driving some lawmakers to leave their posts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Greene echoed those sentiments in her resignation statement, arguing nothing gets better for the American people \u201cno matter which way the political pendulum swings.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rep. Thomas Massie\u2002<\/u><\/a>(R-Ky.) told The Hill that \u201ceverybody in the Republican Party, with the exception of just a few, are consigned to be automatons.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThey just have to do whatever Trump wants them to do. What fun is that, if you\u2019re an adult? Most of my colleagues are successful people who worked really hard to get here, and then they find out you\u2019re just a rubber stamp for the Speaker who\u2019s a rubber stamp for the president. I don\u2019t blame them for running for another office or going back home,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Massie has frequently sparred with Trump, most recently outmaneuvering him on legislation requiring the Justice Department to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) said that there\u2019s been a \u201clot of dysfunction\u201d in Congress, including a government shutdown that lasted 43 days and the \u201csilliness of censure resolutions going back and forth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cEven the fact that the House has been, you know, divesting itself of some of its own powers when it comes to things like, you know, its authority on tariffs and that sort of thing. Of course, the redistricting war that\u2019s bad for people on both sides, and that House leadership has refused to do anything about. So, yeah, I think those are all sources of frustration,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI do think that there\u2019s maybe some people who say, like, you know, at some point \u2026 if they feel like they can\u2019t accomplish the things that they came here to do, then maybe that weighs into their decision. And I think the fact that you have the House of Representative gone for two months, for example, yeah, that makes it harder for people to do the things that they came here to do,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Republicans acknowledge the job can often feel isolating. Rep. Ronny Jackson\u2002<\/u><\/a>(R-Texas) noted many of his fellow colleagues he knows are stepping away to spend more time with their families.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But whether the turnover will tip the scales of the 2026 midterm election remains to be seen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Most House Republicans who are leaving represent districts that are red. But Bacon\u2019s seat is rated as leaning Democrat, while Rep. David Schweikert\u2019s (R-Ariz.) seat is listed as a Republican toss-up, according to Cook Political Report<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rep. John James\u2019s (R-Mich.) district is leaning Republican, while Rep. Ashley Hinson\u2019s (R-Iowa) seat is likely Republican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And then there\u2019s the redistricting war going on as a backdrop, with both sides pressing to save seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) suggested the turnover could be beneficial by opening the door for new voices and enthusiastic people to enter Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFresh blood is good. \u2026 I don\u2019t think people serving for 50 years is a great thing, so I think turnover is a good thing,\u201d Fine said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n