An analysis published Monday in the medical journal The Lancet projects that cuts to the agency will lead to more deaths from diseases like AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
More than 14 million people could die over the next five years because of the Trump administration\u2019s dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development, according to an analysis published Monday in the medical journal The Lancet<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Researchers calculated the lifesaving benefits of USAID funding over a 21-year period, then used the data to determine how many lives would be lost without USAID funding in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The analysis found that, from 2001 through 2021, USAID-funded programs prevented nearly 92 million deaths across 133 countries, including more than 25 million deaths from HIV\/AIDS, around 11 million from diarrheal diseases, 8 million from malaria and nearly 5 million from tuberculosis<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced in March<\/a> that he was canceling 83% of USAID\u2019s programs, which he said did not serve \u201cthe core national interests of the United States,\u201d and added that the State Department would absorb the roughly 1,000 remaining programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The action brought many overseas humanitarian efforts to a grinding halt<\/a>, leading to the closings of food kitchens and health clinics in underserved countries and in some cases delaying or stopping the distribution of lifesaving medications, bed nets to ward off malaria, nutritional packets for starving children and chlorine tablets to disinfect dirty water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The analysis, done by a team of international researchers from Spain, Brazil, Mozambique and the United States, estimated the impact of the 83% funding cuts, assuming they remain through 2030. Of the more than 14 million deaths forecast, around 4.5 million would be among children under 5, the authors found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe numbers are striking, but we are not the only group that did this kind of analysis,\u201d said Davide Rasella, a research professor at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, who coordinated the study. Other research groups, he said, \u201ccame up with similar magnitudes \u2014 millions and millions of deaths that will be caused by the defunding of USAID.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n A model from a Boston University researcher estimated that funding cuts for U.S. aid and support organizations are leading to 88 deaths per hour<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Before it was gutted, USAID was a key partner in overseas efforts to alleviate poverty and disease. It also supported the economic growth of low- and middle-income countries with the capacity to trade with the United States. The agency managed more than $35 billion last year<\/a>, according to the Congressional Research Service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rubio said in March<\/a> that the agency\u2019s \u201cgains were too few and the costs were too high,\u201d though he promised to keep \u201cessential lifesaving programs.\u201d A lawsuit filed in February on behalf of government workers and foreign service employees is challenging the funding cuts in court, but the outcome remains uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The State Department did not respond to a request for comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A New York Times investigation<\/a> found that, as of May 7, more than half of the remaining USAID programs were dedicated to crisis relief \u2014 assistance for people affected by disasters and conflicts. Some malaria, tuberculosis and HIV programs remain, as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Amira Albert Roess, a professor of global health and epidemiology at George Mason University, said the way the funding was terminated is partly responsible for the high number of predicted deaths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFor better or for worse, some of the USAID-funded clinics in some areas, they were the main source of care,\u201d she said. \u201cIf you wanted to reduce USAID funding, it could have been done in a more gradual manner, instead of this sudden \u2014 and really, in a lot of places, overnight \u2014 shuttering of clinics.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The abrupt closings of HIV clinics<\/a>, for instance, meant some people could not refill their medications, which can be life-threatening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIf you miss a dose or multiple doses, as was the case with lots of individuals, that\u2019s creating a situation where the individual can start to deteriorate fairly rapidly,\u201d Roess said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rasella said the funding cuts are also having a ripple effect in European countries, which have similarly slashed their humanitarian aid budgets. \u201cWe are in a crisis now,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said this month<\/a> that it is seeing \u201cthe deepest funding cuts ever to hit the international humanitarian sector.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n