Tuesday is primary day in Virginia \u2014 but the general election matchup for the commonwealth\u2019s highest office is already set.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former U.S. representative, and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state\u2019s lieutenant governor, have known for months that they would face off against each other in the race to succeed<\/a> Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, since they were the only major-party candidates to qualify for the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One of them is guaranteed to make history by being elected Virginia’s first female governor. And they\u2019ve already been running general election-focused campaigns for months, providing an early jump-start to one of just two governor\u2019s races this year (the other is in New Jersey). Those elections will be early indicators of how voters are responding to President Donald Trump \u2014 and where the political winds are blowing ahead of the 2026 midterms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Already, clear dividing lines have emerged from both campaigns, providing a map of how each candidate might carve out a path to winning Virginia’s top political job and navigating the politics of Trump’s second term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Spanberger has focused heavily on economic and affordability issues, as well as her support for reproductive rights in a state that abortion-rights groups\u2002highlight as a rare spot in the South where abortion care remains<\/a> widely accessible until viability. Spanberger\u2019s campaign and allied groups have also, more broadly, attacked Earle-Sears over her conservative record on additional social issues<\/a>, like contraception and marriage quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition, the Spanberger campaign and its allies have frequently hit Earle-Sears over what they call an indifferent response to Trump\u2019s moves to shrink the federal workforce<\/a>. Virginia is home to more than 340,000 federal workers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Earle-Sears has, in large part, gone all-in on the accomplishments of the Youngkin administration, telling voters that electing her would mark a continuation of the popular (but term-limited) Republican governor\u2019s record, including growing the private sector of the economy and standing up for \u201cparents\u2019 rights\u201d<\/a> in their children’s schools and classrooms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Still, some Republicans have criticized Earle-Sears\u2019 campaign, complaining that it lacks discipline<\/a> and consistency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In interviews, Republican operatives in the state and elsewhere have grumbled that the campaign has lacked a central message.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI want to see her succeed. She\u2019s just not running a good campaign,\u201d said a GOP operative who has worked in Virginia, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cHer failures have allowed for Spanberger to just sit tight. But time is not on Earle-Sears\u2019 side. It\u2019s on Spanberger’s side, because of the makeup of the state and because of her money advantage,\u201d the operative said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the operative and other Republicans NBC News spoke to have pointed out that it remains far too early to forecast a doomed ending for the Earle-Sears campaign, noting that the formal general election cycle is only just beginning and pointing out that Youngkin himself landed a close come-from-behind win four years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Earle-Sears \u201chas a great story,\u201d and \u201cshe can be electrifying on the stump,\u201d the operative said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Earle-Sears campaign spokesperson Peyton Vogel said she would build on Youngkin\u2019s record and keep Virginia \u201con the right track.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThis race is a clear choice: Abigail Spanberger represents the Biden status quo \u2014 higher prices, soft-on-crime policies, and a war on parents\u2019 rights,\u201d Vogel said in an email. \u201cWinsome is building a movement powered by real Virginians who want to keep Virginia on the right track.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n In an email, Spanberger campaign spokesperson Connor Joseph framed the race through the issues she has embraced as her main talking points: affordability, economic issues, reproductive freedom and taking on Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Joseph said Spanberger is “relentlessly focused on making Virginia more affordable for their families, strengthening schools for their kids, and growing the Commonwealth\u2019s economy for everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn this moment marked by so much uncertainty, Virginia voters also know that Abigail will never be afraid to stand up to the Trump Administration\u2019s attacks on Virginia jobs and Virginia\u2019s economy \u2014 and they know that Abigail will be a Governor who always defends their fundamental freedoms, unlike her opponent,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How the campaigns are setting up their stories<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Both candidates launched their first television ads in recent weeks<\/a>, highlighting their biographies as they introduce themselves to voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Earle-Sears, a Jamaican immigrant, is a Marine veteran, electrician and businesswoman. She served in the House of Delegates and as vice president of the commonwealth\u2019s Board of Education before she ran for lieutenant governor in 2021. She went on to become the state\u2019s first female lieutenant governor and the first Black woman in statewide office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Spanberger, a former CIA officer, flipped a Republican-held House seat in 2018 and established herself as a more moderate lawmaker, aligning with colleagues with national security backgrounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n From Jan 1. through Tuesday, $3.7 million had been spent on ads in the race, according to AdImpact. The Spanberger campaign has spent $1.4 million, while the Earle-Sears campaign has spent $2.3 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That disparity, however, hasn\u2019t been reflected in very early polling, which has shown Spanberger ahead. In a recent Roanoke College poll<\/a>, 32% of respondents viewed Earle-Sears favorably, with 48% saying they had unfavorable views. Another 20% of respondents said they had no opinion of her. By contrast, 41% of respondents said they viewed Spanberger favorably, with 40% saying they viewed her unfavorably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The numbers reflect the uphill climb Republicans had already faced in their quest to keep control of the governorship. Off-year governor’s elections tend to be bellwethers of the broader political environment \u2014 and the party in power in Washington. In 11 of the last 12 Virginia governor’s races<\/a>, voters elected the candidate of the party out of power in the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the campaign won’t by any stretch hinge only on what’s happening in Washington. Democratic-aligned groups have signaled an eagerness to highlight, for example, Earle-Sears\u2019 conservative positions on a pair of issues on which she isn\u2019t aligned with Youngkin: same-sex marriage and abortion rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWith Republicans laying the groundwork to ban contraception and Winsome Earle-Sears vowing to do everything in her power to end abortion in the state, reproductive freedom is on the ballot in Virginia this November, and we\u2019re going to make sure voters know that,\u201d EMILY\u2019s List President Jessica Mackler said in an interview. Her group, which works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, endorsed Spanberger in December 2023<\/a>, just weeks after she launched her campaign while she was still in Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Still, Democrats have refused to take anything for granted in a state Trump lost by less last year than in his previous races and where several recent governor\u2019s races have been close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI do feel like we have momentum, but at the same time, we are prepared for this to be very competitive,\u201d Democratic Governors Association Executive Director Meghan Meehan-Draper said on a call with reporters last week. \u201cThe stakes of this race are way too high for us to take anything for granted.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Youngkin has continued to publicly heap praise on his No. 2, calling her in recent months a “steadfast partner<\/a>” who would be able to build on his record. He has frequently referred to the wins and accomplishments of the \u201cYoungkin-Earle-Sears administration.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Winsome Earle-Sears is the American Dream,” he wrote on X this year<\/a>. “Her lifetime of service to God, Family, Country and Commonwealth has prepared her to take the Governor\u2019s mansion this fall and keep Virginia winning.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n