Many consumers will pay more for air conditioning this summer as President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war collides with existing price pressures, a coolant shortage and scorching forecasts that are set to drive up utility bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is a sad time to need a new HVAC system,\u201d said Scott Shelton, owner of Charlotte Comfort Systems in North Carolina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Heating, ventilation and air conditioning contractors say they\u2019ve been weathering higher costs since the post-Covid recovery, for everything from labor and raw materials to a newly mandated refrigerant. With supply chains stretching deep into countries facing new tariffs, HVAC firms say it\u2019s impossible to avoid passing at least some of the higher costs on to customers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Shelton estimates his expenses have already risen by 80% since the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is a sad time to need a new HVAC system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scott Shelton, owner of Charlotte Comfort Systems, Charlotte, N.C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt\u2019ll affect lower and middle classes more than I\u2019ve seen in my 38 years\u2019 experience in this industry,\u201d he said of ongoing and expected cost increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The prices U.S. manufacturers charge for HVAC and refrigeration equipment remain near the record highs<\/a> they hit last summer, before Trump won re-election, and some contractors expect his levies to drive them higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Take a component that cost $1,000 in March, said Aydin Mehr, who manages Denver-based UniColorado Heating and Cooling: \u201cCurrently it\u2019s going to cost $1,100,\u201d he said. \u201cIn September, that same thing will cost $1,300 to 1,400.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Adding to the expected squeeze are steeper utility bills for many households. U.S. residential electricity costs are forecast to average $784 this summer, up 6.2% since last season and the highest level in 12 years, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) said Thursday. An\u00a0early heat wave<\/a>\u00a0is already baking the Southwest and Texas this week, with Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Austin, Houston and Dallas breaking May records.<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Mehr voiced concerns about this summer. \u201cWe\u2019re stockpiling like crazy to keep our prices low as long as possible,\u201d he said, but his inventory is \u201calready diminishing rapidly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some top air-conditioner makers are responding to the Trump administration\u2019s reshoring push, with Carrier on Tuesday announcing a $1 billion five-year investment<\/a> to expand domestic production. Analysts say the HVAC sector<\/a> is relatively well-positioned<\/a> to handle tariffs, including on steel and aluminum. But the industry still relies heavily on overseas suppliers, and contractors say many American importers are already curbing shipments, unsure which tariffs will stick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The United States imported more than $15 billion worth of air conditioners<\/a> last year, about five times as much as it exported, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Mexico and China \u2014 which currently face double-digit blanket tariffs<\/a> \u2014 accounted for the largest shares of U.S. spending on AC imports, at 50% for Mexico and 19% for China. Analysts estimate less than half<\/a> of Mexican-made HVAC equipment complies with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, the deal Trump brokered in his first term that spares some Mexican and Canadian goods from the 25% tariffs he imposed on them in his second.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Many suppliers, which typically purchase on 90-day schedules, had already halted ordering by the time the U.S. and China agreed Monday<\/a> to pause most of their tariffs for 90 days, Mehr said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn the best-case scenario, we\u2019re going to have a Covid-style type of thing where they\u2019re going to be waiting months just to get their stuff,\u201d he predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A key factor is the industrywide shortage of R-454B<\/a>, the more eco-friendly coolant that regulators began requiring in January under a bipartisan measure Trump signed in 2020. Mehr was expecting a major manufacturer to ship new heat pumps that use R-454B in mid-April, \u201cbut it still hasn\u2019t shipped because they didn\u2019t import the parts from China to finish them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n We\u2019re stockpiling like crazy to keep our prices low as long as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Aydin Mehr, general manger of UniColorado Heating and Cooling, Denver<\/p>\n\n\n\n He foresees the worst of the refrigerant shortage to last until mid-June or early July, easing right around when supplies of budget to midgrade AC units may start to dwindle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These fears may not pan out nationwide, or at all, but the coolant crunch is already\u00a0driving up costs<\/a>\u00a0and delaying installations as\u00a0manufacturers hike prices<\/a>. Appliance giant Honeywell last month\u00a0announced a 42% surcharge<\/a>\u00a0on R-454B, citing \u201cthe cumulative effect of increased costs and raw materials\u201d amid strong demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some HVAC contractors even accuse manufacturers of using supply-chain disruptions to price-gouge. Makers of cooling systems announced tariff-related price hikes \u201cbefore it even became real,\u201d said Barton James, president and CEO of the Air Conditioning Contractors of America. \u201cThe whole industry continues to test the waters on what\u2019s the breaking point for the consumer. And right now, we\u2019ve not found it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Air-Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute called that allegation \u201coffensive.\u201d The manufacturing trade group\u2019s members have their own concerns about the uncertainty posed<\/a> by \u201con again\/off again tariffs,\u201d spokesperson Francis Dietz said in a statement. \u201cFar from using tariffs as a cover to raise prices, manufacturers are going out of their way to minimize the economic impacts\u201d and keep products affordable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Home Depot acknowledged a \u201cfluid environment\u201d but declined to comment on specific product categories, and Lowe\u2019s didn\u2019t respond to a request for comment. Both home improvement giants report earnings next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A White House spokesperson didn\u2019t respond to a request for comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The crunch comes as meteorologists anticipate above-average temperatures<\/a> in much of the U.S. this summer, after 2024 became the hottest summer on record<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The National Weather Service forecasts excessive heat to generate hotspots from Maryland to Maine and Oregon to Texas. Parts of Utah, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are most likely to see hotter-than-average days over the next three months. With extreme heat exacerbated by climate change becoming more frequent, researchers say U.S. heat-related deaths have more than doubled<\/a> in recent decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This year there could be less federal aid to help households keep their homes at safe temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shortly after gutting the entire staff<\/a> of the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, Trump proposed a budget that would slash the initiative\u2019s $4 billion in funding to zero. LIHEAP was established in 1981 to help struggling families cover home heating and, later, cooling costs including AC installations. But it has been strained by what advocates describe as chronic funding shortfalls coupled with surging demand<\/a> for summertime relief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n NEADA, which represents state officials who disburse LIHEAP aid, estimates that households facing utility arrears now owe a cumulative $21 billion, the most in four years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWithout access to affordable cooling, many will be at risk of heat stroke and other health impacts associated with rising temperatures,\u201d NEADA Executive Director Mark Wolfe said in a statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n