COVID-19 may no longer be a pandemic, but the disease likely reduced the availability of the US workforce by as much as 2.6 percent in 2022\u2014a burden on productivity that could last for years.
\nOVID-19 has gradually\u00a0become a part of the US landscape. Changes in official policy have indicated as much, as has the public\u2019s clear acceptance of the risks of the disease. These shifts are consistent with the\u00a0scenarios\u00a0that we and others have described: COVID-19 is now endemic in the United States.
\nHowever, that does not mean that we have defeated the disease. Every day, between 250 and 400 US families lose a loved one to COVID-19.1\u00a0That\u2019s roughly 2.5 to 4.0 times the average number of daily deaths from the flu in the decade preceding the pandemic.2\u00a0 For these families (and those of the more than one million victims since 2020), COVID-19 is an unalloyed tragedy.
\nAnother ongoing effect of COVID-19 is less critical, and less obvious, but nevertheless substantial:\u00a0more than\u00a0two years after the lockdown, the disease continues to exert a brake on the US economy through productive workdays lost to worker illness, caregivers\u2019 responsibilities for children and seniors, and compliance with isolation guidelines. And some analysts are starting to notice.3
\nWe estimate that each case of COVID-19\u2014including both those diagnosed and those that do not make it into official statistics\u2014leads to\u00a01.0 to 1.5\u00a0days of productive work lost, depending on the scenario. By itself, that is not catastrophic for anyone, worker or employer. But the scale of the endemic is vast: the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests that there were 315 million to 690 million COVID-19 cases in the United States in 2022. Only a small portion of these cases, however, are captured in public-health statistics.4
\nDo the math, and 315 million to 1.05 billion worker days were likely lost to COVID-19 last year, equivalent to 1.3 million to 4.3 million workers dropping out of the workforce for the full year.5\u00a0At the high end, that\u2019s about double the average number of sick days taken by US workers in the decade before the pandemic. Stated differently, the cumulative impact of lost time due to COVID-19 is equivalent to a 0.8 to 2.6 percent reduction in the availability of the US workforce.6\u00a0 In our view, this is a hidden loss that could help explain the persistent US worker shortage.
\nIn this article we review the analysis and explain our assumptions. And while our review is confined to 2022, early epidemiological estimates suggest that US case rates will continue on a similar trajectory in early 2023, particularly if new subvariants such as XBB.1.5 drive new waves of disease.\u00a0If that happens, then the US workforce will lose productive days at a similar rate.7\u00a0In the meantime, severe outbreaks of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the United States are also wreaking havoc on workers\u2019 availability.8\u00a0 Many analysts have asked about the missing US workers.9\u00a0Our answer: they\u2019re out sick, and companies will have to adapt.<\/p>\n