{"id":41032,"date":"2025-04-15T04:32:14","date_gmt":"2025-04-15T09:32:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/?p=41032"},"modified":"2025-04-15T04:32:27","modified_gmt":"2025-04-15T09:32:27","slug":"what-soaring-uncertainty-means-for-the-u-s-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/?p=41032","title":{"rendered":"What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff agenda<\/a> has thrown the financial world for a loop for much of the past month<\/a>. The on-again<\/a>, off-again<\/a> trade escalation with other nations \u2014 most notably China \u2014 has upended markets<\/a> with investors fleeing U.S. stocks in search of more stable ground<\/a>.  And as experts and business leaders say the lack of clarity around the tariffs is every bit a challenge as the levies themselves, data shows economic uncertainty is the highest it has been in years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economists have a way of quantifying economic chaos, as multiple measures show just how uncertain the market and the economy in general are. One measure, the Economic Policy Uncertainty index from researchers at Stanford and Northwestern universities, uses an analysis of news reports, tax code data and economic forecast disagreement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the EPU index, uncertainty spiked in March to levels last seen during the Covid pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kevin L. Kliesen, an economist at the St. Louis<\/a>\u2002<\/strong><\/a>Federal Reserve<\/a>, <\/strong>noted that the change in uncertainty from last spring to this spring is the sharpest such increase in almost 40 years.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a historically unprecedented increase,\u201d Kliesen<\/a> said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The instability makes it harder for companies and consumers alike to make decisions, and it can be a scene-setter for recession<\/a>s. \u201cFirms will delay investment in response to higher uncertainty,\u201d Kliesen said. \u201cConsumers facing higher uncertainty about job prospects, they might cut back on spending.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Menzie Chinn, a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin, said, \u201cPeople are maximally confused.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To show how uncertainty plays out, Chinn gave an example of potential homebuyers: Lowering interest rates<\/a> might entice them, but worries about a big drop in home prices over the next year \u2014 the kind that might arise from a recession \u2014 might scare them away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s better news, but washed out by this bad uncertainty,\u201d Chinn said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The uncertainty extends into the bond market: Government bonds are being sold more than they\u2019re being bought \u2014 even as stocks sour, flouting historical trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traditionally seen as a safe harbor, bonds tend to be purchased by investors when markets are on edge. That\u2019s not the case today, with 10-year Treasury yields surging above 4.5%<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As overall stability is eroding, any news \u2014 even if it\u2019s inaccurate or positive \u2014 has the potential to send things haywire. U.S. stocks soared briefly on April 7<\/a> when an errant headline on X said Trump was considering a pause, only to sink when the White House said the claim was false. And while the market took off after Trump dialed down most tariffs Thursday, stocks faltered the next day<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prominent business leaders have warned about the uncertainty in recent weeks, with both JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon<\/a> and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink<\/a> saying the lack of clarity is pushing the economy closer to recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have the strongest economy in the world. It would be good not to add to the uncertainty out there,\u201d Dimon said Wednesday on Fox Business<\/a>, adding that a recession is now a \u201clikely outcome.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nbcnews<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff agenda has thrown the financial world for a loop for much of the past month. The on-again, off-again trade escalation with other nations \u2014 most notably China \u2014 has upended markets with investors fleeing U.S. stocks in search of more stable ground.  And as experts and business leaders say the lack of clarity around the tariffs is every bit a challenge […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":41033,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[2074,1959,3616,32648,1230],"class_list":["post-41032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-economy","tag-surge","tag-tariffs","tag-trade-war","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41032"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41032\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41034,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41032\/revisions\/41034"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/41033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}