Mike Johnson\u2002<\/u><\/a>(R-La.) seeks to navigate a razor-thin House margin. <\/p>\n\n\n\nHouse Republicans control a narrow 218-213 majority, which does not allow Johnson a ton of flexibility to pass a budget reconciliation package that would combine border security, tax legislation, as well as energy and defense spending. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump acknowledged his concerns over the small House majority and the leeway Johnson has to pass his agenda on Thursday when he pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik\u2019s (R-N.Y.) nomination to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, writing in a Truth Social post that \u201cwe don\u2019t want to take any chances.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt\u2019s about having reinforcements in the House more than anything else,\u201d said Ford O\u2019Connell, a Florida-based Republican strategist. \u201c[Trump] wants to make sure he\u2019s able to drive home the big beautiful bill.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republicans push back on the theory that Stefanik\u2019s nomination being pulled had to do with the special House race in Florida, noting that it amounted to bad timing and to what they said was New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) slow-walking the special election to replace Stefanik. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the nervousness ahead of Election Day, most Republicans and Democrats maintain that Fine will likely win in the end. The question is by how much. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Democrats are already using the potentially close margins in the race as evidence of what they say is trouble for the GOP even in parts of the country that are favorable to Trump\u2019s agenda. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThese are races that should not under ordinary circumstances be on anyone\u2019s political radar. They are safe Republican seats that Donald Trump won by more than 30 points,\u201d House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters earlier this week. \u201cThe American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling. That is why they are on the run.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republicans, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, have also issued warnings about the Tuesday election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of the outcome in that, it\u2019s going to be a way underperformance from what I won that district by in 2022 and what the president won it by in November,\u201d DeSantis told reporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a reflection of the candidate that\u2019s running in that race,\u201d DeSantis said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
DeSantis and Fine have a contentious history dating back to when Fine switched his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some Republicans say Fine will ultimately come through with a comfortable-enough margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRemember he didn\u2019t get on TV until last week,\u201d said one Republican strategist. \u201cThat\u2019s why Josh is doing so well. I mean, he\u2019s burned through a s\u001e\u001e\u001e load of money but he\u2019s been up on TV since the beginning of March.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republicans argue that between Fine getting up on TV and the influx of outside spending, Fine will be able to extend his lead to a more comfortable margin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another likely promising sign for Republicans is that early and absentee voting has slowly moved toward Fine\u2019s favor this week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to early and mail-in voting data compiled by Decision Desk HQ on Tuesday, it was estimated Fine narrowly led Weil. That trend appeared to be continuing into the weekend as of Friday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe [absentee\/early vote] returns have been steadily moving towards the GOP this week and we expect it to be R+8 going into the weekend,\u201d said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ. \u201cGiven GOP voters tend to turn out more on Election Day, we expect the electorate to settle in the R+14 range once all the votes are counted Tuesday.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAll that being said, we have seen special elections recently where the Democratic candidate has overcome R+15 electorates so that\u2019s why this race remains close in a district President Trump won handily in 2024,\u201d Tranter added. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most recent example of a special election flip took place on Tuesday in Pennsylvania, where Democrat James Malone won an open Pennsylvania state Senate seat in a district Trump carried by 57 percent of the vote. Democrats have touted the win as a sign of grassroots enthusiasm in the second Trump era. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Florida leans much more red than Pennsylvania, with the Florida GOP boasting a nearly 1.2 million registration advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Should Fine win with a comfortable double-digit margin, some Republicans argue, then Democrats will have a tough time playing up their loss as a victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIf he wins by 10, then there\u2019s no narrative,\u201d O\u2019Connell said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
thehill<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Republicans are pulling out all the stops ahead of the special election in Florida\u2019s 6th Congressional District as worries of a narrower-than-expected margin grow in the district President Trump won by more than 30 points in November. Trump called into two tele-town halls for state Sen. Randy Fine (R) in an effort to drive out […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":40360,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1613,1437,1264],"class_list":["post-40359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-election","tag-florida","tag-gop"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40359"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40359\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40361,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40359\/revisions\/40361"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/40360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=40359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=40359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}