Fewer 18-year-olds are enrolling, especially at four-year schools. But the number of applications continues to grow<\/p>\n\n\n\n
College<\/a> enrollment is dropping at a \u201cconcerning\u201d rate, according to new data<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center shows enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen has dropped by 5% this fall semester. The data reflects enrollments reported for 1.4 million 18-year-old freshmen as of 31 October 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The decline is most significant at both public and private, non-profit four-year colleges, which have seen a more than 6% decline in enrollment. For 46 states, Inside Higher Ed<\/a> noted, the average drop was almost 7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At prestigious universities with lower acceptance rates, the largest drops in enrollment were among freshmen of color. Black freshmen<\/a>, for example, enrolled 16.9% less at highly selective public and private, non-profit four-year schools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The primary reason for the drop, experts say, is more complicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Julie J Park, an education professor at the University of Maryland, cited \u201ca national conversation that\u2019s been going on for a while\u201d about a \u201cpotential \u2018enrollment cliff\u2019\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The enrollment cliff<\/a> concept came about within higher education after years of declining birth rates in the US, triggered by the Great Recession. Earlier this year, the CDC<\/a> released data indicating that the US had hit a historic low in its annual number of births \u2013 declining 2% from 2022 to 2023 and then 3% in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cSince the most recent high in 2007, the number of births has declined 17%, and the general fertility rate has declined 21%,\u201d the August 2024 data shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While Park said an seeing an enrollment cliff isn\u2019t occurring just yet, there are other factors with dropping enrollment rates \u2013 particularly when it comes to the cost of higher education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt could be any number of issues. There are issues related to Fafsa,\u201d Park explained. And Fafsa isn\u2019t the only problem. Under that loan forgiveness plan, up to $20,000 of an individual\u2019s federal student debt could have been forgiven for borrowers who were also Pell grant recipients; up to $10,000 of debt could have been forgiven for other borrowers. More recently, Republicans have gone after Biden\u2019s other debt relief effort, the Saving on a Valuable Education, or Save<\/a>, repayment plan. That plan would have cut undergraduate loan payments in half and ensured borrowers would never see their balance grow from unpaid interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Millions signed up for the plan, only to see it challenged in court. The move created yet another roadblock for graduates with debt as well as for aspirational college students who hoped to see a more affordable way to pay for an education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Park noted that there\u2019s also \u201cthe competing pressures of the labor market\u201d for prospective students to contend with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAs work becomes more attractive to some students or individuals, it\u2019s a lot to give up not working and that way to help support your family. And so that\u2019s something that also might be at play,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The cost of college is the number one barrier to enrolling in higher education for adults not enrolled in such a program, according to a 2024 report<\/a> from Gallup and the Lumina Foundation. That report also found that for more than three-quarters of the more than 3,000 unenrolled adults polled, cost and the need to work were preventing them from pursuing further education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Most notably, nearly all adults without a college degree polled said that they felt at least one type of credential is \u201cextremely\u201d or \u201cvery\u201d valuable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jenny Rickard, the CEO of Common App, one of the websites most widely used by students to apply to colleges every year, echoed this sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThis new data showing a 5% year-over-year decline in enrollment for 18-year-old freshmen is concerning, but it is not due to students\u2019 declining interest in higher education,\u201d said Rickard, who also served as the chief enrollment and communications officer at Bryn Mawr College in Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rickard noted a \u201ccontinued growth in applications\u201d as something that \u201cunderscores that students remain eager to pursue a four-year degree\u201d. She also pointed to \u201can admissions year wrought with uncertainty\u201d and the aforementioned Fafsa and other affordability concerns as reasons why enrollment is down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The College Board found<\/a> in-state tuition at public four-year colleges and universities costs an average of $11,610, which is $300 higher than last academic year. Out-of-state tuition at the same schools is an average of $30,780, a whopping $940 higher in just one year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The US Department of Education, which administers federal student aid, made changes to the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or Fafsa, to simplify it last year, but efforts backfired. Technical difficulties<\/a> and glitches caused massive delays in rolling out the application, leaving many without any idea of the kind of financial aid package they might be entitled to and how much college might cost them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Park also cited last year\u2019s supreme court ruling as a potential roadblock, referencing the nation\u2019s highest court ruling<\/a> against Joe Biden\u2019s student loan forgiveness plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n