Senate Democrats are facing an increasingly tough road to keeping their majority in the upper chamber as races in crucial swing states tighten with just two weeks until Election Day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The path to 51 seats was always going to be a long shot for Democrats, who are facing a difficult Senate map featuring multiple incumbents in solidly GOP territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But now Democrats are also dealing with Republican candidates in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin quickly closing the gap. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report this month shifted both races from \u201clean Democrat\u201d to \u201ctoss-up.\u201d Along with Michigan, the \u201cblue wall\u201d states are now all in the \u201ctoss-up\u201d category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is heaping pressure on the party to hold the fort in the final stretch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis is never going to be easy,\u201d Sen. Michael Bennet\u2002<\/u><\/a>(D-Colo.) told reporters Tuesday at the Capitol. \u201cBut I believe these races are essentially tied. \u2026 To me, it feels like it\u2019s 50-50 all the time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThis is an unpredictable world. I don\u2019t know what\u2019s going to happen,\u201d said Bennet, who previously served as chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Democrats have long acknowledged the problems of the map. Republicans need to win only two more seats to control the chamber, and Sen. Joe Manchin\u2019s (I-W.Va.) retirement certainly will put that state in the Republican column.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All four seats rated as \u201ctoss-ups\u201d by Cook are held by Democrats. Sen. Sherrod Brown\u2002<\/u><\/a>(D-Ohio) is fighting to keep his seat in a state that has trended solidly red in recent years, and Cook last month shifted Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is fighting for a fourth term, to \u201clean Republican.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tightening polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as for the open seat in Michigan, are exacerbating those problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Decision Desk HQ\/The Hill, Sen. Tammy Baldwin\u2002<\/u><\/a>(D-Wis.) leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde by only 1.8 points after leading by about 5 points a month ago. In Pennsylvania, DDHQ\/The Hill\u2019s average of polls shows Sen. Bob Casey\u2002<\/u><\/a>(D) leading Republican David McCormick by 3.3 points, down from a 10-point margin in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Strategists on both sides of the aisle say Republicans are closing the gap between their numbers and former President Trump\u2019s, who is expected to run ahead of all of them. This has given Republicans life at an opportune time, though they caution the races have some differences. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe have all the momentum [in Wisconsin and Michigan] \u2026 and compared to where we were six months ago, we\u2019re in a very strong spot,\u201d one GOP operative said. \u201cPennsylvania\u2019s different. It\u2019s a really close race. It\u2019s hard to know. Casey\u2019s just there. He doesn\u2019t look liberal, and he\u2019s been there for a long time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n A Democratic operative involved in Senate races told The Hill that Republicans have successfully brought members of their base home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOver the spring and summer, GOP-leaning men were telling pollsters they were independents, but they\u2019re Republicans and they\u2019ve come home to being Republicans. The GOP ad campaign has been about doing that and they have successfully done that,\u201d the operative said, pointing to spots about transgender rights and immigration. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cRepublicans are not trying to pull off swing voters. They are all about consolidating their base and making sure a guy who\u2019s deciding between voting for Trump, voting for [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] or not at all shows up and votes for Trump,\u201d the operative continued. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Pennsylvania is the latest to see a tightening in recent surveys<\/u><\/a>, with McCormick finally being within shouting distance of Trump after struggling for months to bring some of the former president\u2019s supporters fully behind him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Political observers have also pointed to Casey\u2019s recent ad showing off that he agrees with the ex-president on trade and tariffs as a sign of the shifting tide in the Keystone State. Some Democrats, however, thought it was smart for the three-term senator, especially given the current state of play. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI don\u2019t care who\u2019s kicking his shins,\u201d said TJ Rooney, a former chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said of the ad. \u201cThat ad is masterful in accomplishing that mission, which is to communicate a hope for consensus and progress as a means to communicate with undecided voters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Baldwin has a similar one<\/u><\/a> running in her state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A win in any of the three battleground races is considered gravy this cycle for the GOP, with either Montana or Ohio likely deciding the majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republican Tim Sheehy remains favored to take down Tester in Montana, with Democrats admitting a win there is a steep climb. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In Ohio, Brown is locked in a tough battle with Republican Bernie Moreno,<\/u><\/a> who has been on helium watch over the past month, with public<\/u><\/a> and internal GOP polls<\/u><\/a> showing he is closing in on the three-term senator. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Faced with these sore spots on the map, Democrats have tried to give themselves a shot to nab an upset in GOP-held territory. Headlining that list is Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred (D) is trying to fulfill progressive dreams and take down Sen. Ted Cruz (R), and Nebraska, where Sen. Deb Fischer (R) has found herself in a sudden battle with independent Dan Osborn. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Nebraska race is particularly galling to some GOP operatives, especially after the Senate Leadership Fund, a group run by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), announced it was spending $3 million in the final stretch to boost Fischer, who is a member of McConnell\u2019s leadership team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIf Trump\u2019s going to win your state by a comfortable margin, you shouldn\u2019t need a bailout,\u201d a second GOP operative said, noting that any of David McCormick, Eric Hovde or former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) would benefit from that spending. \u201cThat\u2019s just laziness.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n However, a win in either state is still viewed as highly unlikely, putting the onus on Democrats to hold their ground in the battleground states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia said Democrats are in position to do just that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cSenate Democrats are in the strongest possible position to defend our majority \u2013 we have better candidates, stronger campaigns and our candidates are attracting support from voters of every political persuasion. Senate Republicans\u2019 flawed candidates are hurting their prospects across the entire Senate map \u2014 and while the NRSC is slashing advertising, Senate Democrats are going on offense,\u201d he said in a statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Strategists, meanwhile, expect things to remain close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe presidential race will be very close in all three states, and with the continued polarization and throwing on the team\u2019s jersey of what our politics is now, it shouldn\u2019t surprise us that these things are getting tight,\u201d the second GOP operative said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAt the end of the day you have to ask which of these three [candidates] will run ahead of Trump, if any of them,\u201d they continued, saying it is unlikely that will happen. \u201cAnd then the question is: how close can they actually run? \u2026 I would be surprised if any of them win. It will not surprise me if all three are close.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Democrats agree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe Democrats have win scenarios if Harris wins, but also if Trump wins,\u201d the Democratic operative involved in Senate races said. \u201cThese Republicans can only win if Trump wins.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n