{"id":33624,"date":"2024-10-19T02:38:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-19T07:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/?p=33624"},"modified":"2024-10-31T22:27:56","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T03:27:56","slug":"arizona-is-a-top-presidential-battleground-but-the-senate-and-house-races-there-are-taking-place-in-their-own-universe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/?p=33624","title":{"rendered":"Arizona is a top presidential battleground. But the Senate and House races there are taking place in their own universe."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

PHOENIX \u2014 Mesa Mayor John Giles, a Republican who supports Kamala Harris for president, is vexed by the disconnect between Arizona\u2019s presidential race<\/a> and what\u2019s happening down the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polls show Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake, the quintessential Donald Trump acolyte, losing a significant slice of the former president\u2019s voters to her Democratic rival, Rep. Ruben Gallego.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s something teflon about Donald Trump that just makes no sense to me. Kari Lake says literally the same things as Donald Trump and people roll their eyes. And when Donald Trump says that, they clap,\u201d Giles said in an interview. \u201cI can\u2019t \u2014 there\u2019s no rational explanation for that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That disconnect captures a unique dynamic in battleground Arizona: A consequential race for Senate and a pair of ultracompetitive House elections are operating in their own mini-universe, largely detached from the marquee presidential contest \u2014 and each other. A ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution hasn\u2019t delivered an obvious boost<\/a> for Democratic candidates that they had hoped for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, a mix of ticket-splitting, shifting party coalitions and candidate contrasts are driving the races in this historically Republican stronghold that has become a top swing state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the House, two Republican congressmen are aiming to fend off a pair of Democratic former state legislators. Seven-term GOP Rep. David Schweikert is seeking to hang on against Amish Shah, a doctor, in the blue-trending Phoenix suburbs after winning by less than 1 point in 2022. And in the Tucson area, freshman Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is facing a rematch against Kirsten Engel after previously winning by under 2 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both of these House races are rated as \u201ctoss-ups\u201d by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report <\/a>W<\/a>ith Amy Walter<\/a>. One thing operatives in both parties agree on is that they will come down to the quartet of candidates, not the strength of the presidential or Senate contenders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAll four have distinct personalities,\u201d said a Democratic operative working on House races, who spoke candidly on the condition of anonymity. \u201cWhoever ends up winning these races \u2014 it\u2019s clearly going to be because voters are choosing someone, not just following the top of the ticket.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrats say Gallego\u2019s strength isn\u2019t automatically elevating their candidates, while Republicans say Lake hasn\u2019t been an albatross for them. Democrats argue the abortion ballot initiative will help with turnout, but acknowledge they still have work to do in convincing voters that the GOP candidates are a threat to legal abortion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cArizonans since 2018 have been some of the most sophisticated ticket-splitters in the country,\u201d said a GOP strategist working on House races, noting that in 2022, Schweikert and Ciscomani won despite Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters losing both of those districts. \u201cThe races are running on their own track, and that includes the ballot initiatives. You could see a voter vote for Trump-Gallego-Schweikert.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI would be curious what their thinking is,\u201d the operative joked. \u201cBut the polling seems to suggest they do exist.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s team has also noticed Lake underperforming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe big thing to point to is that President Trump doesn\u2019t ride on the coattails of others and he\u2019s his own candidate,\u201d a Trump campaign official said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about Lake\u2019s struggles. \u201cThat\u2019s a different race.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An ongoing national realignment adds another layer of mystery in Arizona. Democrats are attracting more white college graduates in the suburbs, a key voting demographic, sparking some concerns within the GOP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe political environment is worse for Republicans than it was in 2020 in a few suburban districts, namely Omaha and throughout Arizona. This is a concern with three valued incumbents: [Nebraska Rep. Don] Bacon, Ciscomani, Schweikert,\u201d Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC, wrote in a memo to allies obtained by NBC News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Democrats also face a threat of defections among a slice of Latino voters, particularly men without a college degree, who could help Republicans make up ground elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gallego, as a Latino male veteran, said his background gives him a built-in advantage with those voters that Harris may be struggling with. He said moderate Republicans who used to support the late Sen. John McCain<\/a> are also \u201cpart of the key\u201d to a statewide victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some voters with fluid partisan preferences won\u2019t split their votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019ve been a Republican my entire life. I\u2019m actually, for the first time in my life, voting straight down the Democratic ticket,\u201d Roberta Voss, a former GOP state legislator, said at a roundtable in the Phoenix area with Gallego on Thursday. \u201cOne criteria for me: Did Trump endorse you? You don\u2019t have my vote. Simple as that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The individual dynamics indicate that the issue set won\u2019t decide the races: Republicans are largely focused on issues like crime, border security and inflation, while Democrats are capitalizing on their advantages on health care, abortion and protecting Social Security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another wrinkle, a new survey<\/a> commissioned by the nonpartisan Inside Elections found far-right GOP Rep. Eli Crane underperforming Trump by 10 points in his red district, suggesting that at least some rural or Native American voters are open to splitting their tickets. Crane remains favored against Democratic rival Jonathan Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One theory of the Trump-Crane split: The freshman lawmaker may be paying a price for joining seven other GOP lawmakers to overthrow former Speaker Kevin McCarthy<\/a> midsession last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think Eli Crane has turned off some Republicans who were upset by him taking out McCarthy,\u201d Arizona Republican consultant Marson said. \u201cSo now you have a Navajo running against him that\u2019ll juice up the Native American voters. And that could also present a problem for Eli Crane.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

nbcnews<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PHOENIX \u2014 Mesa Mayor John Giles, a Republican who supports Kamala Harris for president, is vexed by the disconnect between Arizona\u2019s presidential race and what\u2019s happening down the ballot. Polls show Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake, the quintessential Donald Trump acolyte, losing a significant slice of the former president\u2019s voters to her Democratic rival, Rep. Ruben Gallego. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":33625,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[2031,1613],"class_list":["post-33624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-arizona","tag-election"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=33624"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33626,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33624\/revisions\/33626"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/33625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=33624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=33624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=33624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}