The Great Lakes \u2014 known for ice fishing and frozen winter waves \u2014 rang in the New Year almost naked. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ice covered less than 0.4% of the Great Lakes on New Year’s Day, according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, which uses satellite data to measure ice concentrations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt\u2019s basically nothing,\u201d said James Kessler, a physical scientist with the laboratory, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. \u201cWe have about 50 years of data. On Jan. 1, the average for today is about 9%.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kessler said that while the ice coverage is well below normal, it\u2019s not unprecedented to have ice concentrations below 1% on Jan. 1, when it\u2019s still early in the season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The amount of ice on the Great Lakes \u2014 Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario \u2014 determines when and how raw materials and cargo can be shipped from Midwest ports. Fish species, like whitefish, depend on ice cover to protect their eggs for reproduction.<\/a> Lower ice levels could increase erosion and contribute to shifting weather patterns in the region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Kessler said that unseasonably warm air temperatures this season have prevented ice from forming on the lakes’ surface. His research shows Great Lakes annual ice coverage is extremely variable each year, but trending lower at a rate of about 5% each decade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThat\u2019s certainly an indication of climate change,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Ice typically reaches its maximum extent from mid-February to early March. In an average year, ice covers about 40% of the Great Lakes at peak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Last year, ice coverage peaked at about 23% and by mid-February, ice only covered<\/a> 7% of the lakes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Earth experienced its hottest year on record in 2023<\/a>, largely because of human-caused climate change. Researchers expect El Ni\u00f1o, a natural climate pattern that releases ocean heat into the atmosphere, to further boost temperatures this year. El Ni\u00f1o winters tend to be warmer across the Great Lakes region<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Seasonal outlooks<\/a> this year forecast higher-than-average temperatures in the Great Lakes region and below-average ice<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Weather forecasters expect little to change this week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the next five days, \u201cthe forecast isn’t particularly favorable for ice growth either as temperatures are expected to remain mostly above normal for the entire Great Lakes region,\u201d according to an ice outlook produced by the National Weather Service in Cleveland<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n