El Ni\u00f1o will drive what could be a warmer or wetter winter in parts of the US this year, according to an outlook released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday.
But don\u2019t worry, snow lovers. El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 a natural ocean and weather pattern in the tropical Pacific \u2013 could also mean higher snow chances in some atypical spots and fuel more potent northeast snowstorms, forecasters say.
El Ni\u00f1o is forecast to be strong this winter and reach the most significant level since a very strong El Ni\u00f1o fostered the warmest winter on record across the US mainland during 2015-2016, according to NOAA.
While no two El Ni\u00f1o winters are the same, this shift typically brings wetter and cooler weather to the South while the north becomes drier and warmer.
And that\u2019s exactly what\u2019s expected this winter. Above-average temperatures are likely across much of the northern US, according to NOAA\u2019s outlook.
Parts of the Northwest, Great Lakes and Northeast have the highest likelihood of above-average temperatures. This will be a dramatic change for parts of the Northwest after last winter ended cooler than average for the region.
It\u2019ll be yet another warm winter for the Great Lakes and Northeast. Last winter was one of the warmest on record\u2002for both regions, according to data from NOAA.
When forecasters predict above-average, temperatures for an entire season it doesn\u2019t mean there won\u2019t be any cold, just that old bouts may be less frequent and last for shorter periods of time.
Outside of an area of near-normal temperatures expected for parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas and Texas, there is not a strong signal across the rest of the US, according to NOAA. Much of the southern half of the country has equal chances of being near normal, above normal or below normal.
The same cannot be said of precipitation.
A large area of the southern US from the Plains through the Southeast is expected to see above-average precipitation this winter. This precipitation could fall in the form of rain, snow or an icy mix of both.
More precipitation would be welcome news for some states that are battling intense drought, including Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.
Southern cities like Lubbock, Texas, and Little Rock, Arkansas, average less than 8 inches of snow per year, but even these minimal snow amounts climb during an El Ni\u00f1o winter.
This southern precipitation pattern is one of El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s winter signatures. El Ni\u00f1o tends to shift the jet stream south over the US. Because the jet stream is essentially a river of air that storms flow through, storms can then move across the South with increased frequency and increase the chances of precipitation.
The mid-Atlantic and far southern New England are also likely to see more precipitation than normal this winter. El Ni\u00f1o typically favors a less-active, west-to-east storm track across the northern US, but the Northeast will still be prone to snowy nor\u2019easters.
During an El Ni\u00f1o winter, nor\u2019easters can get \u201cjuiced up\u201d by abundant tropical moisture and deliver \u201ctwo to three big snowstorms\u201d on average, according to Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center.
\u201cWith the right timing, these storms can really explode off the East Coast,\u201d Gottschalck explained.
Typically, much of the Northeast gets less snow than normal in an El Ni\u00f1o winter \u2013 this is true for both interior cities like Albany, New York, and coastal cities like Boston.
But this winter, a majority of the region has equal chances to record near-normal, above normal or below normal precipitation.
\u201cThere\u2019s hope for snow lovers,\u201d Gottschalck said.
Drier weather is likely across other sections of the northern US, which is fairly typical for an El Ni\u00f1o winter. NOAA\u2019s outlook highlights the northern Rockies and Great Lakes as the places most likely to have less precipitation than average this winter.
Parts of the central and southern Rockies and the central Plains will lean wetter than average this winter.
Near- or above-normal precipitation would help drought-stricken states, including Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska. Water levels on parts of the Mississippi River have plummeted to historic low levels as a result of ongoing drought, and winter is when these levels are able to recharge.
A wet winter is also expected across much of California. The state was pummeled by many atmospheric river events in rapid succession last winter through early spring, which led the state to one of its\u2002wettest winters in history, according to data from NOAA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n