{"id":12686,"date":"2023-05-31T06:02:19","date_gmt":"2023-05-31T11:02:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/?p=12686"},"modified":"2023-05-31T06:02:21","modified_gmt":"2023-05-31T11:02:21","slug":"dems-fret-a-third-party-presidential-bid-the-numbers-show-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/?p=12686","title":{"rendered":"Dems fret a third-party presidential bid. The numbers show why."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If it\u2019s TUESDAY\u2026 Drones <\/em>strike<\/em><\/a> Moscow, causing damage to some buildings\u2026 Biden White House, House GOP leaders <\/em>work to sell<\/em><\/a> debt-ceiling deal <\/em>reached over the weekend<\/em><\/a>\u2026 Newly minted presidential candidate Ron DeSantis <\/em>heads<\/em><\/a> to Iowa\u2026 GOP ad war kicks off at record-setting pace\u2026 And impeachment trial of Texas AG Ken Paxton <\/em>set to begin<\/em><\/a> no later than August.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But FIRST… The ultimate size of the third-party presidential vote might be one of the most important \u2014 and decisive \u2014 2024 stories to follow over the next 17 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Especially if the general election turns out to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2016, 6% of all voters cast ballots for third-party and write-in candidates, with Libertarian Gary Johnson getting more than 3% of the national vote and Green Party nominee Jill Stein capturing more than 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 But in 2020, that share fell to 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The difference, Democrats say, made it easier for Trump to win \u201816 but not in \u201820 \u2014 by changing the threshold the major candidates needed to reach to win key battleground states, from 47% and 48% in 2016, to 49% and 50% in 2020. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the numbers illustrate why Democratic groups want to keep the third-party vote share as small as possible, including working to keep the well-financed third-party group No Labels off the ballot in battleground states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When comparing the results from 2016 and 2020, what stands out is that Trump\u2019s vote share (nationally, in key battleground states and in key counties) stayed virtually the same. What changed is that Biden grew the Democratic Party vote share by 2 to 3 points across the board, while the protest vote for other candidates dropped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is no doubt at all that Stein and Johnson cost Clinton the election in 2016, and a credible third-party vote could do the same to Biden in 2024,\u201d said Matt Bennett, the executive vice president of public affairs at Third Way, a centrist Democratic group opposing No Labels\u2019 effort to enter next year\u2019s presidential contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But No Labels and other third-party groups say there should be more choices for voters, especially when polls show supermajorities don\u2019t want either Biden or Trump to run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTwo-thirds of the public doesn\u2019t want the election we\u2019re probably going to get,\u201d said Ryan Clancy, No Labels\u2019 chief strategist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line from the numbers: The third-party vote being anywhere between 4 to 8 points could<\/em> hurt Dems the most. But if it\u2019s higher than that (like we saw in 1992), it could more of a jump ball. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Go to NBCNews.com<\/a> for more on our deep-dive on the third-party vote \u2014 and how it could shake up 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

nbcnews<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If it\u2019s TUESDAY\u2026 Drones strike Moscow, causing damage to some buildings\u2026 Biden White House, House GOP leaders work to sell debt-ceiling deal reached over the weekend\u2026 Newly minted presidential candidate Ron DeSantis heads to Iowa\u2026 GOP ad war kicks off at record-setting pace\u2026 And impeachment trial of Texas AG Ken Paxton set to begin no later than August. But FIRST… The ultimate size of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":12687,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[7672],"class_list":["post-12686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-presidentdigitthe-democratic-party-of-the-united-statesthird-partycompetitive-biddingpanic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12686"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12686\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12688,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12686\/revisions\/12688"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ustower.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}